Shrinking wages, pacts in ruins: Labour implosion looms in 2026
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By Victor Ahiuma-Young
By the close of 2025, several signs suggested that Nigeria’s labour landscape was on the brink—defined by mounting tension, deepening distrust, and a trail of unfinished business.
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From ministries to hospitals, universities to courtrooms, and even factories, workers’ grievances were converging into what keen labour watchers perceive as a looming implosion—one that could erupt fully in 2026 if current trends persist.
At the heart of the anticipated unrest lie four interlinked pressures: the steady erosion of real wages, broken agreements, unresolved sectoral grievances, and an industrial relations framework considered outdated and no longer in touch with modern realities.
Together, these forces have created a combustible mix that threatens widespread industrial instability across the country.
Pay rise, a major flashpoint
When the Federal Government approved a new national minimum wage of N70,000 in 2024, it was hailed as a major victory for organised labour. Two years on, that victory feels hollow for many workers. Besides the fact that implementation remains patchy, the twin policies of fuel subsidy removal and devaluation of the national currency have triggered hyperinflation that has completely erased the gains of the N 70,000 national minimum wage.
While some federal and state agencies have adjusted salaries, others remain entangled in disputes over consequential adjustments, arrears, and harmonisation across pay structures. Judiciary workers’ nationwide court shutdowns over delayed wage awards offered an early warning of the brewing storm.
Labour leaders insist the problem goes beyond delays.
They accuse government employers of selective implementation and bad-faith negotiations—signing agreements only to stagger, dilute, or later ignore them. “What we see repeatedly are promises without timelines and timelines without consequences,” one union official remarked.
Compounding the frustration is Nigeria’s punishing economic climate. Inflation, rising food prices, transport costs, and housing expenses have drastically eroded real wages. Increasingly, unions are reframing their demands not around statutory minimums but around the “living value” of wages—arguing that a nominal increase means little if it cannot sustain basic living standards.
Ahead of the next national minimum wage negotiation in 2027, this year is also expected to witness tripartite engagements that could provoke unrest if not properly handled.
The issue of a living wage may become a major point of contention.
In late December, the Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, NECA, Mr Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, while speaking on wages, said while the association supports the national minimum wage, the concept of a “living wage” is still evolving and lacks a clearly defined framework. He noted that even at the International Labour Organisation (ILO) level, discussions on a living wage are ongoing, with a consensus reached earlier last year that the ILO should provide clearer parameters.
Obsolete labour laws, structural weaknesses
Beneath the immediate wage disputes lies a deeper structural problem: Nigeria’s labour laws. The Trade Disputes Act and related statutes have lost touch with modern-day realities. Ambiguous dispute resolution timelines often allow conflicts to drag on indefinitely.
Broad definitions of “essential services” severely restrict lawful strikes, particularly in the health and other essential services sectors.
Most critically, enforcement mechanisms for collective bargaining agreements are weak, enabling employers—especially government agencies and private sector employers to renege on signed pacts with little consequence.
These weaknesses have fostered a cycle of mistrust. Unions feel compelled to escalate disputes through strikes because legal and institutional channels offer no timely relief.
Experts have warned that without comprehensive reform, industrial conflict will remain the default mode of negotiation.
Sadly, all efforts at upgrading and modernising the nation’s labour statutes appear to have hit brick walls. The work carried out under the National Labour Advisory Council, NLAC, with the support of the International Labour Organisation (ILO), has been stalled by the government.
The stalled effort at reviewing Nigerian labour laws—led by the then Minister of State for Labour and Employment, Festus Keyamo, SAN—produced an agreed draft law that was forwarded to the Federal Executive Council, FEC, where it has remained stalled.
NASU, SSANU–FG deadlock
Nigeria’s public universities remain another major battleground. Though the government and the Academic Staff Union of Universities, ASUU, appear to have resolved their protracted dispute, the same cannot be said of the Non-Academic Staff Union of Educational and Associated Institutions, NASU, the Senior Staff Association of Nigerian Universities, SSANU, and the National Association of Academic Technologists, NAAT. These unions have issued repeated ultimatums over withheld salaries, uneven allowances, stalled wage reviews, and other lingering issues.
While academic staff disputes often dominate headlines, non-teaching staff insist their grievances are deeper and more systemic.
They complain of discriminatory implementation of salary increases, prolonged delays in harmonising payment structures, and what they describe as “talk-shop negotiations” with no concrete outcomes.
With patience wearing thin, union leaders warn that failure to reach enforceable agreements could lead to coordinated shutdowns of campuses nationwide—further destabilising an already fragile education system.
A time bomb in health sector
Nowhere is the sense of perceived injustice more evident than in the health sector. For over a decade, the Joint Health Sector Unions, JOHESU, and the Assembly of Healthcare Professional Associations, AHPA, have demanded adjustments to the Consolidated Health Salary Structure, CONHESS, without success.
Health workers argue that while doctors under the Consolidated Medical Salary Structure, CONMESS, have received multiple adjustments, other professionals—nurses, pharmacists, laboratory scientists, and others—have been systematically excluded, contrary to principles of equity and earlier agreements.
Recurring strikes have disrupted services in government hospitals, often leaving patients stranded. The government’s enforcement of the “no work, no pay” policy has further hardened positions, with unions viewing it as punitive rather than corrective.
More worrying is the growing talk of solidarity. Allied unions and government workers’ forums have hinted at nationwide actions in support of health workers, raising the spectre of cross-sector mobilisation.
Judiciary, public service
Labour discontent is no longer confined to traditional hotspots. Judiciary workers’ protests over wage delays exposed systemic weaknesses in public sector compensation management. The issue of financial autonomy for the judiciary, despite a Supreme Court ruling, continues to dominate public discourse, with most state governments shying away from implementation. This year, indications suggest the issue may generate even more troubling headlines.
Staff in research institutes and other government-funded bodies continue to agitate for harmonised salary structures, prompt payment of entitlements, and improved welfare conditions. Each dispute may appear isolated, but together they point to a broader crisis of governance and trust in industrial relations.
2026 industrial space outlooks
Beyond national issues, sub-national and wildcat industrial actions in response to government policies and programmes are also unlikely to fade away.
As the socio-economic and political activities of 2026 unfold, the risks of industrial actions may take different shapes and forms.
If economic hardship, suffering, and poverty continue with no sign of easing; if negotiations and agitations for improved living conditions remain stalled; if labour laws lag behind reality; and if workers continue to face shrinking purchasing power, there are fears that organised labour and workers may increasingly become unwilling to accept partial or delayed settlements.
Observers warn that unresolved disputes—particularly in critical sectors such as power, petroleum, health, education, and the judiciary—could trigger widespread unrest. Coordinated actions across sectors could magnify both economic and social impacts.
The looming labour implosion is not simply about wages. It is about broken trust, perceived inequities, and the failure to resolve long-standing agreements. It reflects a deeper collision between rising worker expectations and rigid, slow-moving institutions.
Nigeria now stands at a crossroads. Without meaningful legal reform, transparent negotiations, and enforceable agreements, 2026 may mark the beginning of a prolonged period of industrial instability—one with consequences far beyond the workplace.
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