Yakubu slams ‘Theatrical Arithmetic’ fueling Tinubunomics backlash

By Johnbosco Agbakwuru

ABUJA — Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Tanimu Yakubu, has dismissed critics of Tinubunomics as peddlers of “theatrical arithmetic,” charging that public outrage over Nigeria’s fiscal figures stems from basic misunderstandings of public finance.

In a statement on Sunday, Yakubu argued that sensational headline numbers—often aggregating tax collections, oil receipts, borrowings, and subsidy savings—create an “arithmetic illusion” rather than genuine economic analysis.

“Revenue is not the same as cash available to the Federal Government. Borrowing is not income; it is financing that creates future obligations. Federation receipts are not equivalent to what the Federal Government can spend,” he stated.

Yakubu highlighted common errors: lumping gross tax figures with net oil revenues, double-counting customs duties, and treating borrowings or subsidy reforms as instant windfalls.

This inflates totals to N150 trillion, N170 trillion, or N180 trillion, prompting cries of “where did the money go?” His answer: much of it never existed as spendable cash.

On fuel subsidy reform, he clarified that benefits accrue gradually—through reduced deficits, better budgeting, and targeted aid—rather than sudden cash piles from closed fiscal leaks.

Addressing Nigeria’s rising debt, Yakubu noted that much of the naira-denominated increase comes from exchange-rate revaluations of existing dollar debts, not fresh borrowing.

“Treating this accounting effect as fresh borrowing is a category error,” he said.

He also stressed Nigeria’s federal revenue-sharing system, where inflows are divided among federal, state, and local governments—not available solely to Abuja. True budget reality hinges on federally retained revenue plus deficit financing, not gross aggregates.

Tinubunomics, Yakubu reiterated, aims for a macro-fiscal reset amid inherited debts, forex pressures, security costs, and arrears—not overnight riches. Real accountability demands audit logic: tracking retained revenues, expenditures, and outputs like infrastructure and social services.

“Accountability does not begin with social-media arithmetic. It begins with audit logic,” he concluded.

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