Worst food crisis looms in Nigeria

By Dele Sobowale

“First we eat; then we do everything else”

This alarm has become necessary because another warning published on this page, in  January 2025, was ignored, at first, by governments. Disastrous consequences followed; resulting in delayed over-reaction by the Federal Government. This, in turn has precipitated a food price cycle – imports crashed prices, domestic producers sustained losses and reduced production and prices start to rise again. Unlike 2025, when food prices generally plummeted, 2026 promises to reverse the trend significantly. Two vital developments force this alarm – one domestic, the other global. They will be dealt with later. But, first, below are relevant portions of the January 2025 article.

Fix food first and fast or forget it

“There are people in the world, so hungry, that God cannot appear to them except in form of bread.” Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948.  

  The great Indian leader and liberator made that remark before he was assassinated in 1948 at a time when his country, now divided into at least three nations, suffered from food scarcity worse than Nigeria is experiencing now. Certainly, it can also be said that there are millions of people in Nigeria today, so hungry, that God cannot appear to them except either as a loaf of bread or a bowl of cooked rice. I was only four years old in 1948. So, I had to interview those far older than me to know how the food situation was like at the time – in addition to historical research. Surprisingly, Nigeria was then a net exporter of food at a time when almost 99 per cent of Nigerians were illiterates; when the University of Ibadan was just opening its doors to students. All the Nigerian university graduates could not have been more than 1000. Today, UI alone graduates over 5,000 annually. All Nigerian universities throw more than 120,000 into the job market. What is the use of our famed “educated manpower” if we cannot feed ourselves now?  

  India, in the same period under review, has also sent tens of millions of graduates out of its universities; a lot more than we did. But, something interesting occurred. India, a formally food-deficit nation in 1948 has been transformed into a food exporter; while Nigeria, a former food-exporter is now a food-deficit nation, depending on others for our survival. We already know one reason why. Nigeria discovered oil; India did not. But, we continue to avoid mentioning a more fundamental reason. Educated Indians and their leaders are intelligent and Nigerians are not. Let me quickly explain.

“Food is national security, food is economy; it is employment, energy, history. Food is everything.” Chef Jose Andres, founder of World Central Kitchen.

Most of us are even so ignorant about the characteristics of food, we don’t know that food is another definition of “stored energy as Jose Andre told us. The most powerful and richest can refuse to do a lot of things. None can refuse to eat.

What has changed?

“Rice Mills Are Closing” – Report, March 2026.

“3.7 million Nigerians displaced” – VANGUARD, March 2026.

“Iran war threatens global food supply”. Google Report, March, 2026.

Change is inevitable in human affairs. Several changes have occurred threatening global food supply generally and Nigeria in particular – Rice mills in Nigeria closing, 3.7 million Nigerians now in Internally Displaced Persons camps and the war in Iran. Separately they represent threat to food production; together, they portend calamity.

Rice mills closing remove incentives for farmers to plant. Aggregate productivity declines – not just rice, but other minor crops, vegetables, okra, which most farmers cultivate on the periphery of rice farms. With rice out, a basket of food items suffer decline. Galloping food inflation follows quickly. It is already happening.

A brief experience while attending a conference on poverty alleviation in India in 1983 immediately became useful. Some of the participants at the conference were just starting to promote the idea of urban farming – which at the time appeared like a joke given the vast acres of uncultivated land available everywhere. Few think that population growth, the demands of economic development will shrink the land available for farming; and only by increasing yield per acre and adopting landless farming methods will the hundreds of millions of mouths added every year be fed. Today, over 30 million urban and suburban farmers are producing more food than ever before. The sky is now literally the limit as tomatoes, lettuce, cucumbers, carrots and potatoes are now grown on the balconies of twenty-storey buildings. More people are getting into it. Penthouses, and flower beds now have sunflowers growing side by side with food items unlike before. Dried sunflower seeds make excellent vegetable oil.

A picture is worth ten thousand words. The table above summarized from VANGUARD’s lead story, shocking as it is, merely scratches the surface. Underlying that brilliant report is the real catastrophe unfolding in real time. No food productivity loss would occur if the 3.7 million people are in Lagos State – which produces next to nothing, but, eat the most. Unfortunately, for Nigeria, approximately 3.3 million or 91 per cent are located in just eight states – Borno, Benue, Zamfara, Katsina, Adamawa, Yobe, Sokoto and Kaduna. Add those in Plateau, Kano, Kwara, Kogi and Kebbi and Nigeria’s “”food basket” is complete. An overwhelming percentage of those in IDPs, perhaps up to 1.5 million, were farmers producing food to feed themselves and the rest of us. In IDP camps, they produce nothing; and still eat. Nobody needs a degree in Finance and Economics to understand why that transformation alone would exacerbate food insecurity and deepen poverty. More concerning is the fact that with the increased attacks on rural communities, more IDPs are on the way to the camps; simultaneously, more farmers are deserting the farms. Nothing suggests that insecurity will abate before the planting period expires. Planting later invariably reduces potential output.

“All things do help the unhappy man to fall”. William Shakespeare, 1564-1616.

An unhappy nation is also subjected to many hazards – internal and external. The war in Iran could not have started at a worse time for Nigeria. Without it, the country would have faced an uphill task feeding the people later this year and later next year. With the war’s destruction of gas installations in the Middle East, even if it ends today, the entire world and Nigeria face inevitable inflation; with headline food inflation leading the surge. Massive rice imports which saved us late last year will arrive with heftier price tags; at a time when aggregate and individual disposable income is falling nationally.

  Factor in fuel prices, which on the weekend of March 20-21, 2026 skyrocketed to N1,300 litre, from N890 in January; and the picture is almost complete.

Where are governments?

“Farming would be mighty easy, if it is done with [computers and biros and now AI] in a cozy office.” US President James Madison, 1751-1836.

  From personal experience, farming is one of the most difficult, but, enormously rewarding tasks anybody can undertake. We need more farmers to avert calamity; we also need more government presence. Unfortunately, politics has taken top priority. All our elected leaders no longer care about food for the masses – who will vote in January 2027. 

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