Trump’s Letter, Atiku’s Lobbyists and old American stories about Tinubu, by Emmanuel Aziken

Politics is often less about the event itself than about the timing of the event. A document released today may have been written weeks earlier, but when it surfaces at a politically sensitive moment, it immediately acquires a meaning far beyond its contents. That is the context in which the recent exchange involving President Bola Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the administration of President Donald Trump should be understood.

For weeks, reports had circulated that lobbyists engaged by Atiku were intensifying efforts in Washington to draw renewed attention to the decades-old American civil forfeiture case involving Tinubu. Whether those efforts ultimately succeed or not is almost secondary. Their immediate objective appears to be to keep alive a narrative that has trailed the President since before the 2023 election.

Then, almost on cue, emerged a letter from President Trump commending the Tinubu administration’s efforts against insecurity and reaffirming the importance of Nigeria to American strategic interests.

Coincidence? Perhaps.

Calculated timing? That is the question political observers cannot ignore.

This is not the first time Nigeria’s political class has sought advantage through Washington. Ahead of the 2015 presidential election, the then-opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) vigorously cultivated relationships within the Barack Obama administration and the wider American policy establishment. At the time, relations between Abuja and Washington had become strained over a number of issues, including the Jonathan administration’s handling of the Boko Haram insurgency and the enactment of the Same-Sex Marriage (Prohibition) Act, which drew strong criticism from the Obama administration. Those developments fuelled a widespread perception in Nigerian political circles that Washington had become increasingly uncomfortable with President Goodluck Jonathan’s government.

Whether that perception accurately reflected the position of the Obama White House is a matter historians may continue to debate. What is beyond dispute is that the APC recognised the importance of international opinion and invested considerable effort in engaging influential American policymakers and opinion moulders. It was a strategy aimed not necessarily at securing foreign intervention but at shaping the international narrative around Nigeria’s democratic transition. Many within the APC later believed those engagements contributed to strengthening global confidence in the credibility of the 2015 electoral process.

It is, therefore, ironic that the same political tendency that once benefited from cultivating opinion in Washington now finds itself on the receiving end of a similar strategy. The actors have changed; the playbook has not.

Within hours, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), now serving as the principal platform of the opposition coalition, dismissed the significance of the letter, insisting that commendation from Washington would not erase lingering questions surrounding the old forfeiture controversy.

Expectedly, both sides are playing to their strengths.

The Tinubu camp wants Nigerians and the international community to see a President who enjoys the confidence of the world’s most powerful government. International endorsements, especially from Washington, have always carried considerable political value in Nigeria. They reinforce the image of legitimacy and strengthen the government’s diplomatic standing.

The opposition, however, sees something different. To it, no diplomatic nicety can substitute for accountability. In its calculation, the real issue remains the old American records which have refused to disappear from Nigeria’s political discourse.

This is where the battle shifts from facts to perception.

The Trump letter was never likely to persuade Tinubu’s critics. Equally, the lobbying campaign in Washington was never likely to shake the confidence of Tinubu’s supporters. Each development merely energises an audience that had already made up its mind.

That explains why the ADC’s response came almost immediately. By declaring that “Trump’s letter cannot save Tinubu,” the opposition was sending a message not to Washington but to Nigerians. It was attempting to prevent the administration from converting diplomatic goodwill into domestic political capital.

The Presidency, on its part, would undoubtedly relish every opportunity to project itself as a respected international partner at a time when Nigeria is seeking greater foreign investment, deeper security cooperation and stronger economic confidence.

The larger question, however, is whether either strategy speaks to the concerns of ordinary Nigerians.

The average citizen battling inflation, unemployment, insecurity and rising living costs is unlikely to lose sleep over lobbying contracts in Washington or congratulatory letters from foreign leaders. Those are elite political contests, fought with sophisticated public relations weapons thousands of kilometres away from the markets of Lagos, the farms of Agbor or the streets of Kano.

For the ordinary Nigerian, performance remains the ultimate lobbyist.

If insecurity declines substantially, investment improves and economic conditions become more bearable, international commendations will merely echo what citizens already feel. Conversely, if hardship persists, no number of endorsements from foreign capitals will significantly alter public opinion.

Indeed, history teaches that external validation rarely determines domestic political fortunes. Nigerian voters have consistently judged leaders more by their personal experiences than by the opinions of foreign governments.

Ultimately, neither Washington’s commendation nor Washington’s lobbying will decide Nigeria’s political future. That decision belongs to Nigerians.

Letters may shape headlines. Lobbyists may shape conversations. Political parties may shape narratives. But elections are shaped by citizens assessing whether their lives have become safer, more prosperous and more hopeful.

In the end, the most persuasive endorsement any government can receive is not a letter from a foreign president. It is the verdict of its own people.

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