Three years of hard choices, navigating economic challenges, recovery

By Johnbosco Agbakwuru

President Bola Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023, amid huge expectations. Since the return to civilian rule in 1999, he was the stalwart  of the National Democratic Coalition, NADECO, which spearheaded the battle against military rule to lead the nation.

He marked his first Democracy Day on June 12, 2023 with aplomb.

Although the national economy was in poor condition when he took office,. three years in the saddle, the tide has been turbulent; there have been lamentations from the citizenry, but the ship of administration appears to be sailing despite the bumps and storms.

The storm before the government is the result of the administration’s deliberate choice between “reform over ruin” and “decisiveness over hesitation”—a framing that captures both the ambition and the controversy surrounding his economic agenda.

Marking the third anniversary of his administration on May 29, 2026, President Tinubu addressed Nigerians not merely as their leader but as “a fellow citizen who understands the sacrifices many families have made in recent years.”

The address laid out a comprehensive account of the challenges that confronted Nigeria when he took office in May 2023, the difficult reforms his government implemented, and the progress he says Nigeria has now achieved. The President acknowledged that “we have not solved every problem, and we are not yet where we want to be.”

Tinubu said that Nigeria faced “profound economic and structural difficulties” at the inception of his administration. He enumerated several interconnected challenges: mounting fiscal pressures, unsustainable fuel subsidies, declining revenues, exchange-rate distortions, rising debt-servicing costs, insecurity across several regions, energy supply constraints, and declining public confidence in institutions.

Breaking point

On one of the issues that has affected the economy, which is the subsidy regime, Tinubu noted that the country had reached a breaking point. “At the height of the subsidy regime, Nigeria was spending as much as ?18.4 billion daily to sustain petrol subsidies—over ?4 trillion in 2022 alone,” he said. These resources, he argued, “could have been invested in roads, healthcare, education, housing, and critical infrastructure.”

Equally troubling, the President said, was the forex system. “Multiple exchange rate windows and forex arbitrage created massive distortions, with Nigeria losing more than ?8 trillion over three years to rent-seeking and speculative practices.”

“The situation demanded urgent and courageous action,” Tinubu stated. “Difficult but necessary decisions had to be taken to stabilise the economy and prevent a deeper national crisis. The easy choices would have been politically convenient. But leadership demands courage, especially when the right decisions are difficult.”

Human cost

On the sacrifice of his reforms, the President acknowledged the human cost. “These decisions came with sacrifice,” he said. “The rising cost of living triggered by our measures placed enormous pressure on families, workers, and businesses. Young people searching for jobs felt discouraged. Many questioned whether these difficult decisions would lead to a better future.”

Tinubu expressed personal awareness of these sacrifices: “I remain deeply conscious of those sacrifices, and I assure you: your sacrifice has not been in vain.” He then made a bold claim: “And today, I can say with confidence that Nigeria has stabilised and is moving forward again. Across the country, visible progress is taking shape.”

Despite the hardship, the President said there is light at the end of the tunnel with economic growth and a market boom. The administration’s most striking claim concerns the stock market. Tinubu reported that “the All Share Index rose from 53,000 and market capitalisation of N30 trillion in 2023 to a record All Share Index of 250,000 and market capitalisation of N160 trillion this year.” He added that “companies are declaring record profits and dividends.”

The President also asserted that “our economy is now more competitive and better positioned for sustainable growth than it was in 2023. Public finances are improving. States and local governments have greater resources to invest in their people. Investor confidence is growing.”

Yet these macroeconomic gains exist alongside persistent concerns about the cost of living, job availability, and whether ordinary Nigerians are experiencing the benefits of this growth. In the midst of the government’s efforts, Tinubu acknowledged that there is still a gap: “We have not solved every problem… The task before us now is clear: we must ensure that the benefits of reform are felt more directly in the daily lives of ordinary Nigerians.”

On infrastructure, Tinubu presented what he called “unprecedented scale” development. “Over 2,700 kilometres of highways and major roads are under construction, reconstruction, or rehabilitation,” he said. The projects include the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway, the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Road, the East-West Road, and many rural access roads.

“Significant sections are already completed or nearing completion,” the President claimed, noting these projects are “improving transportation, reducing travel time, boosting regional trade, and creating thousands of jobs.”

Rail modernisation projects are also “ongoing to improve connectivity, logistics, and economic integration across the federation,” Tinubu added.

In the oil and gas sector, Tinubu credited his reforms with attracting “billions of dollars in fresh investment from the international oil companies that had shunned our country.” The “$5 billion NLNG Train 7 project is nearing completion to boost LNG production capacity, exports, and dividends,” he said. Domestic gas utilisation is expanding, and “local refining capacity has improved our energy security.” With “large-scale domestic and modular refineries operational,” Nigeria is “reducing its dependence on imported petroleum products and conserving foreign exchange,” according to the President.

One sector that has continued to pose problems for successive administrations is the power sector. Tinubu acknowledged that the sector “suffered from debt, underinvestment, and uncertainty, which weakened generation capacity and limited growth.” But he said his administration is now “clearing legacy obligations, expanding transmission infrastructure, investing in renewable energy, and strengthening the national grid because no modern economy can grow in darkness.”

Tinubu’s statement also highlighted social interventions. He said agricultural programs have “supported millions of farmers by improving seedlings, fertilisers, mechanisation, and irrigation and by expanding access to finance and markets.” The government is “opening new agricultural corridors to create jobs, strengthen supply chains, and reduce pressure on household incomes.”

He further stated that access to education has expanded through the Nigerian Education Loan Fund, which “has provided over 1.5 million students with access to higher education, disbursing more than ?282 billion to ensure that no willing student is denied access due to financial hardship.”

President Tinubu said the “Renewed Hope Housing Programme, along with that of the Federal Housing Authority (FHA), is delivering over 10,000 housing units across 14 states and the FCT, creating over 300,000 jobs and expanding access to affordable housing.” Major “Renewed Hope Cities in Abuja, Lagos, and Kano are progressing steadily,” he said. The consumer credit initiative “CREDICORP is opening up new economic opportunities for workers and families.”

The President said “thousands of primary healthcare centres are being revitalised, while health insurance coverage is expanding for vulnerable Nigerians.”

He also highlighted his administration’s efforts in telecoms stabilisation and digital transformation. According to him, the telecommunications sector, “one of the most important drivers of modern economic growth,” received “decisive action to stabilise” after “years of severe operational pressures and declining investment.” Now, “confidence is gradually returning to the sector. Telecom operators are expanding networks, investing in infrastructure, recruiting Nigerian talent, and widening digital access across the country.”

Tinubu recognized the importance of youth in socio-economic development. He said: “To our young people, I want you to know this nation believes in you. You are not a problem to be managed. You are the engine of Nigeria’s future.” He said the administration is investing “in digital skills, technical education, innovation, student financing, and enterprise support because the future must be driven by Nigerian talent, creativity, and productivity.”

Insecurity challenge

The greatest challenge before the government, which requires collective and urgent attention, is insecurity. There has been a worsening security situation in the country, but Tinubu said security remains “central to our national mission. Our Armed Forces and security agencies have intensified operations against terrorists, bandits, kidnappers, oil thieves, and criminal networks.” He acknowledged that “while challenges remain, many communities and highways are becoming safer and more economically active.”

According to him, the government is “continuing to invest in intelligence, surveillance, logistics, technology, and inter-agency coordination,” improving “the capabilities of our armed forces and security agencies, and reclaiming the authority of the Nigerian state wherever criminality threatens peace and order.”

“I want to assure you that this government will not relent until every Nigerian can live, work, travel, and dream in safety,” Tinubu pledged.

Tinubu told Nigerians that the administration will “continue to ensure that food prices, which have largely come down from their peak in 2023/2024, remain low.” The government is “working to reduce transportation costs as operators of commercial trucks, buses, and taxis convert their petrol engines to CNG and switch to electric vehicles.” It has also “set our sights on creating more opportunities for decent work and enabling enterprise expansion.”

The President concluded with a call for unity: “We must choose hope over despair, unity over division, and nation-building over narrow interests.” He emphasized that “true security and prosperity require that every Nigerian feel included and valued. Nigeria belongs to all of us—no region, faith, or group should feel marginalised or forgotten.”

“Our diversity is a source of strength. Whether Christian or Muslim, North or South, urban or rural, we rise or fall together as one nation under God,” Tinubu said.

He invoked Nigeria’s historical resilience: “History teaches us that great nations are not built in comfort. They are built through sacrifice, resilience, courage, and collective purpose. Ours is a nation of extraordinary people. We survived the civil war and rebuilt. We overcame dictatorship and restored democracy. We endured hardship and remain bearers of hope. The Nigerian spirit remains strong and unbroken.”

“Today, the world is watching our country again, not as a nation defined by its difficulties, but as a nation determined to rise,” he declared. “Across agriculture, infrastructure, power, technology, manufacturing, and industry, the signs of recovery are becoming clearer. Confidence is returning. Productivity is improving. Opportunity is expanding.”

Despite the rough paths, the President asked the citizenry one final thing: to keep faith with Nigeria. “Let us reject cynicism and division. Let us move forward together, united in purpose, disciplined in effort, compassionate toward one another, and confident in the greatness that lies ahead.”

“History tests nations before it elevates them. Nigeria is passing through such a test. But I believe with all my heart that we shall emerge stronger, fairer, more united, and more prosperous than ever before,” Tinubu said. 

As Nigeria continues navigating the complex terrain between macroeconomic reform and everyday hardship, President Tinubu’s third-anniversary statement serves as both a defense of difficult choices and an assertion of emerging progress. It is left for the government to reciprocate the citizens’ patience and perseverance with positive outcomes and tangible changes that will restore hope and place the country on a development trajectory. Whether ordinary Nigerians will feel the benefits more directly remains the administration’s next critical challenge—and the nation’s most important test.

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