INEC Chairman, by Hakeem Baba-Ahmed

“None of us is as smart as all of us.”-–  Ken Blanchard

Last week, the Council of State, a constitutional body whose advice the Nigerian President is not compelled to accept, endorsed President Bola Tinubu’s nomination of Professor J.O. Amupitan from Kogi State as the next Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.

The Senate will duly approve the nomination, as it is in its character. I had written a few months ago that it would be a miracle if any nomination by President Tinubu is not greeted with controversy. The President has acquired a deserved reputation for elevating partisanship and his identity to very high levels of criteria in many of his sensitive appointments.

It would have been disappointing if President Tinubu had swam against the tide in the case of a very important appointment of the head of an institution which by design and practice, should encourage the development and quality of our democratic system but does not. This reputation is not entirely deserved, but it is not without solid foundations either. Nigerian politics is notoriously corrupt and corrupting. Only a person with the skin and character made of metal, or a thoroughly compromised character and disposition to begin with, will be stepping up for the job of INEC chairman without some trepidation. In many ways, INEC reflects today’s Nigeria in many disturbing ways.

 Professor Amupitan will be stepping into an office where only a little stain is a major asset. He is smeared even by default by a nominating President whose campaign for a second term is already well and truly on its way, violating the letter and spirit of the legal and sensible separation of campaign and governance periods. His predecessor had blown the whistle against this premature display of ambition.

Will he insist that a line is drawn by the President and a whole army of political entrepreneurs who are spending fortunes erecting ‘x2’ billboards and posters all over the country? Amupitan is Yoruba from Kogi State, which makes him just marginally outside the core catchment area for Tinubu’s favourite hunting ground, but Nigerians who see only in black and white will ignore his state of origin and tick off another nepotism at play in a key position.

 It has not helped the Professor that his name and credentials had also assumed household status for many months as Tinubu’s frontrunner for the position. Nigerians will say he was just waiting for Yakubu to move out, irrespective of the quality of other candidates. There were other sources of hostility: his competition; a comment he had made that padding (read: budget fraud) is not a crime in Nigeria; his appearance for the APC in a high profile election case and his academic career which does not sit comfortably with some spoilers.

You could say everything negative will be thrown at Amupitan, but he will be cleared by a legislature that should be honoured if described as poodle. More by default than by design, office of the Chairman of INEC has been given a status far in excess of its requirements and roles. Basically, all a Nigerian needs to be qualified for Chair of INEC is evidence that (s)he is not a member of a political party; has tons of personal integrity and solid record of competence in careers. And, oh, there is also the unwritten requirement that the nominating and approving authorities do not suspect that the nominee will be hostile to them, at least.

 Since 1998, every Chairman has met at least the non-partisan and evidence of competence requirements. Justice E Akpata led an INEC that had to make the military administration add the letter ‘I’ for Independent to a new National Electoral Commission, NEC, as a condition to serve. Members of the Commission wanted the world to know they will be independent in name and in responsibility. He served as Chairman of the INEC which conducted the 1999 elections that President Obasanjo won. He died in 2000 and was succeeded by Dr A Guobadia, who led the same Commission to conduct the 2003 elections.

This Commission is on record for creating an electronic voters register, a major development in the process of improving the integrity of the elections by eliminating multiple voting. Its history will be incomplete without a mention of the scandalous Senatorial elections in Anambra State, and its insistence that one of them resigned over an infraction that could have fatally smeared lifetime reputations and the elections themselves.

Professor M Iwu led the Commission which conducted the infamous 2007 elections, producing President ‘YarAdua who vowed to prioritize an improvement in the electoral process that gave him victory. Professor A Jega’s INEC conducted two elections, in 2011 and 2015. One was widely disputed (in many parts of the country, violently), and the second has made history as the only Presidential election result which was not contested by the loser. Professor M Yakubu served two terms and his jury is still out.

 History has been unfair to both Chairmen and Members of the Commission. Leaders of the Commission, on many instances, have also failed to live up to the demanding requirements of conducting credible elections in a vast and complex country like Nigeria. Chairmen, National Commissioners and Resident Electoral Commissioners, RECs, all had to meet specified qualifying criteria. In truth, most Chairmen have had massive challenges leading a Commission made up of powerful and assertive members with thinly-veiled partisan interests.

Not all members of the Commission had the same commitment to fair play and standards of personal integrity. RECs tend to have lower levels of non-partisan interests and although not members of the Commission, they wield huge powers. All told, INEC knows it does not have the final word on winners and losers. A reliable estimate suggests that at least 70% of all election results are decided by the judiciary. This gives the judiciary massive powers, and serves as a registered disincentive for INEC to cover the distance on integrity of elections.

 The  Chairman is the Returning Officer of the Presidential elections. His job also includes leading the Commission to conduct all federal and state elections at 176,846 polling units and hundreds of collation centers, including 36 at state levels and Abuja. At every polling or collation point, something could go wrong, and they do. The Commission is accountable for the conduct of millions of ad-hoc persons entrusted with contributing to credible elections, and has to depend on persons with direct interests in election outcomes to nominate these persons who undertake sensitive jobs directly related to integrity of elections. This is where outright change of figures, violence and vote buying find accommodation. Truth is,  INEC is expected to conduct credible elections in a context that has learnt to frustrate it to the level of an art.

 Presumably, Amupitan knows he is stepping into an office with, quite possibly, the most difficult job in the world. Those who appointed him will expect him to ‘deliver’. The opposition will suspect him all the way, unless it wins the elections. He will inherit a huge task of pushing vital reforms well before the 2027 elections in a very challenging environment. These reforms are vital for the conduct and credibility of the 2027 elections. Whether they successfully survive a bitter political environment with massive stakes for the administration and the opposition will not depend on their utility to credible elections.

The administration, with a huge and frightening muscle and war chest, and an asset in a pliant legislature, will look to see if the reforms will help or hinder its return in 2027. Some National Commissioners will leave during the elections. He has to prepare to deal with the gaps they will leave. If he is eventually sworn-in as Chairman, he will have to live every day of his tenure with the knowledge that he will lead INEC to conduct what will quite possibly be the most challenging and decisive election in Nigeria’s history. And 2027 will not be about who leads Nigeria, but whether the democratic system has any future in Nigeria.

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