Hurdles before Mark, Aregbesola as party finally crosses the rubicon

By Luminous Jannamike

IN politics, recognition is one thing; transformation is another. For David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola, the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) decision to affirm their leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is not the end of a battle but the beginning of a far greater test.

With the 2027 elections inching closer, the question is no longer who leads the ADC, it is whether this leadership can unite, mobilise, and position the party as a credible national alternative before Nigerians return to the polls.

The Birth of a Battle

The ADC, once considered a fringe player, found itself thrust into national prominence when opposition leaders sought a common platform earlier this year.

The arrangement looked simple on paper: a coalition home under the ADC, with respected elder statesmen such as David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola steering the ship.

Yet politics rarely moves in straight lines. Within days, the supposed unity fractured. Old party faithful bristled at what they called a hijack. To them, the ADC was not a lifeboat for weary gladiators of other parties but a painstaking project built over two decades.

At At the centre of the storm stood Nafiu Bala, the former Deputy National Chairman of ADC, who declared: “As it is now, I am the authentic Ag National Chairman of the ADC, and I have since resumed the office (following Ralph Nwosu’s resignation as National Chairman)

“They (coalition leaders) are not members of the ADC. If they wish to join, they should go to their wards and obtain membership cards. Only then can they be recognized as legitimate members.”

Contest of Legitimacy

The struggle soon moved into both the courts and the media. In Abuja, courtrooms became the stage for deciding who truly led the ADC.

Nafiu Bala questioned the legitimacy of David Mark’s takeover, insisting that party membership rules and the constitution could not simply be ignored.

Meanwhile, the Mark-led faction projected calm confidence, urging opponents to seek redress in court while it continued with coalition building.

The party’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, countered Bala’s claims by pointing to his own resignation letter, which had been shared with journalists.

The letter stated: “I, Nafiu Bala, do hereby write to notify you of my resignation as a member of the National Working Committee of our great party, the African Democratic Congress, with effect from 26 May 2025. My resignation is to make way for a smooth and effective coalition and restructuring. My resignation does not in any way mean that I am abandoning the party, so I would be ready to serve in any other capacity I may be called upon in the future.”

The contradiction raised fresh questions. Was Bala a reluctant reformer or an aggrieved stakeholder trying to reclaim lost ground? Many Nigerians followed the drama closely, sensing that this was more than just an internal dispute.

INEC’s Gavel Falls

The turning point came on Wednesday, when INEC updated its records to officially recognise David Mark as National Chairman of the ADC and Rauf Aregbesola as National Secretary.

In bureaucratic terms, it seemed routine. In political terms, it was a thunderclap.

Dumebi Kachikwu, the ADC’s 2023 presidential candidate and a strong critic of the coalition, reacted sharply.

“Nigerians as a whole know that the David Mark-led faction of the ADC is on borrowed time. What we saw from the INEC chairman yesterday was another irresponsible act from the outgoing chairman of INEC.

“It is a norm that when you have cases in court, you respect those cases, and you shouldn’t do anything that will affect their outcomes. The courts are sitting on our matter with David Mark and co next month, and Nigerians will see the rulings after the courts sit,” Kachikwu said.

His remarks stirred debate beyond party lines, raising wider questions about the legitimacy and integrity of political party leadership transitions in Nigeria, particularly when court cases are still ongoing.

Ripples Across the Nation

The implications of the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) decision are beginning to unfold across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones.

In the South-East, coalition committees are already meeting in states such as Ebonyi and Anambra to discuss how to merge structures under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) umbrella. In Enugu and Abia, however, the party has been greeted with scepticism. Whether the enthusiasm in Ebonyi and Anambra can survive the grind of local politicking remains uncertain.

In the South-West, the presence of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola as national secretary is seen by some as an opportunity to rally Yoruba voters disenchanted with the ruling party. Yet his entrenched rivalries in Lagos and Osun could limit the ADC’s room for growth in the region.

In the North-Central, Senator David Mark’s home base gives the party a firm anchor, but competition from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) remains stiff.

In Benue, scepticism persists. An influential Idoma leader and statesman, who asked not to be named, told *Saturday Vanguard* that since Mark assumed the leadership of the ADC, “he has not visited any Idoma group at home or in the diaspora to intimate them of his latest political journey and seek their support.”

The bigger test may lie in Middle Belt constituencies where insecurity and farmer–herder clashes dominate.

In the North-East and North-West, the ADC faces its toughest battles. By-elections last month revealed its shallow presence, with the All Progressives Congress (APC) still dominant and PDP networks resilient. Even so, the expected entry of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar into the ADC later this month hints at potential shifts.

In the South-South, long considered a PDP stronghold, the ADC’s fortunes could rise if the coalition projects itself as united. The backing of a handful of former governors could tilt local calculations in its favour.

Like the Idoma statesman who asked not to be named, Dumebi Kachikwu also issued a warning on the public mood.

“We are taking Nigerians for granted because Nigerians have kept quiet all this while. We have a silent majority that we take for granted; but trust me, soon and very soon you will hear from the silent majority. People have had enough of these politicians who think they can take Nigerians for granted, people with hearts of arrogance,” he cautioned.

*The Path Forward: Things To Do Before 2027 Polls*

What does this recognition mean for 2027? On paper, the ADC now stands as the coalition’s vessel. But as history shows, recognition does not guarantee cohesion.

Nigerians can expect weeks, even months, of internal reconciliation efforts. Bala’s faction, though weakened, still holds sway among loyalists who feel sidelined. Without a serious healing process, parallel structures might persist, diluting the party’s message.

Beyond internal disputes, the greater challenge is the electorate. Nigerians are weary of recycled promises. They are watching to see whether the ADC can move from elite boardrooms to rural communities, from press statements to credible grassroots mobilisation.

Speculatively, one might imagine a grand rally in Abuja where all coalition leaders stand shoulder-to-shoulder under the ADC banner, pledging unity and unveiling a roadmap for governance. Such an image could energise supporters and plant seeds of credibility.

Equally, one might imagine a scenario where unresolved grudges fracture the coalition before the 2027 campaign even begins, leaving Nigerians once again with fragmented opposition choices.

*A Nation Watches*

The ADC’s journey over the past months reads like a political drama, with heroes, villains, betrayals, and sudden twists. At its heart lies a question larger than the party itself: can Nigeria’s opposition truly reinvent itself in time for 2027?

For David Mark and his team, INEC’s recognition is a prize, but also a burden. For Bala and his allies, the fight is not over. For ordinary Nigerians, the stakes are far higher: a chance, perhaps, for a new voice to challenge entrenched power.

Politics is rarely about final victories. Today’s resolution could be tomorrow’s prologue. But for now, the ADC stands recognised, redefined, and under pressure to prove that it is not just another fleeting chapter in Nigeria’s long story of political reinvention.

*EXTRA: What Nigerians Should Expect from ADC Going Forward*

The Independent National Electoral Commission’s recognition of David Mark as National Chairman and Rauf Aregbesola as National Secretary has positioned the ADC at the heart of opposition politics ahead of 2027. But what does this mean for Nigerians?

First, the ADC is expected to intensify coalition-building across the six geopolitical zones. In the South-West, Aregbesola’s influence could galvanise Yoruba support, while Mark provides an anchor in the North-Central. However, the North-East and North-West remain challenging territories where both the APC and PDP still dominate.

Second, reconciliation will be critical. Nafiu Bala’s loyalists remain aggrieved, and unless a healing process begins, parallel structures could weaken the party’s credibility. The ADC must decide whether to embrace inclusivity or risk internal sabotage.

Third, Nigerians should look out for how the party tackles grassroots mobilisation. Recognition by INEC is one thing; building ward-level structures that inspire confidence is another. The electorate is tired of elite deals without community impact.

Finally, the ADC’s ability to present a united front for 2027 will determine whether it emerges as a true alternative or just another transient coalition. Imagining a grand rally in Abuja with all coalition leaders standing shoulder-to-shoulder is inspiring, but Nigerians will judge by action, not ceremony.

In effect, the ADC now has recognition and momentum. Whether it transforms these into power depends on its unity, discipline, and ability to connect with Nigeria’s silent majority.

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