CBN forecasts petrol price at N950 per litre in 2026 

By Udeme Akpan

The Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, said the price of Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, also known as petrol could rise to about N950 per litre in 2026. 

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery currently puts its gantry price at N699 per litre while the retail price at MRS Oil, authorized distributor stood at N739 per litre.

But in the bank’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, CBN based its assumptions on an average crude oil price of $55 per barrel in 2026. 

The bank further assumed an average exchange rate of N1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and N1,400/$ in 2026, supported by improved FX market efficiency, stronger capital inflows, and a current account surplus. 

The bank also assumed domestic crude production of about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period.

Under these conditions, CBN expects Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices to hover around N950 per litre in 2026. The bank said increased private-sector investment—especially in domestic refining—will support growth and help contain energy costs. It added that rising crude production, stronger security around oil assets, and expanding refining capacity will improve supply conditions in 2026.

CBN projected that headline inflation will slow to 12.94 per cent in 2026, down from an estimated 21.26 per cent in 2025 while linking the expected moderation to lower food prices and easing PMS costs driven by competition in the midstream sector.

Before December, Petroleumprice.ng, said: “Petrol sold at around N900 per litre or more in many locations. Prices fell after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery cut its ex-gantry rate from N828 to N699 per litre. “The refinery then enforced a ¦ 739 per litre pump price through its partner, MRS Oil. When MRS outlets adopted the new rate in mid-December, rival stations lowered their prices to retain customers.”

Dangote recently warned that petrol prices could rise to as high as N1,400 per litre if Nigeria returns to heavy reliance on imports. In a statement, the refinery said large-scale local production has helped stabilise the downstream market and reduce volatility.

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