2027 Polls could cost ₦870 billion, says Ex-INEC Adviser warns

…‘Election at risk without urgent reforms, funding, security’

By Omeiza Ajayi

ABUJA: Professor Bolade Eyinla, former Chief Technical Adviser to immediate-past INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, has raised the alarm that Nigeria’s 2027 general election could be in danger unless the Tinubu administration urgently addresses looming crises around funding, leadership transition, security, and voter confidence.

According to him, the 2027 election could cost as much as ₦870 billion (about $600 million), given inflationary pressures and Nigeria’s peculiarities.

Delivering a keynote address at the YIAGA Africa 2027 Election Scenarios and Election Manipulation Risk Index EMRI Retreat in Abuja on Thursday, Eyinla noted what he described as the “critical fault lines” that Nigeria must address ahead of the polls.

He listed the appointment of a new INEC Chairman, timely release of election funds, the integrity of the national voter register, declining voter turnout, insecurity and the deployment of electoral technology as urgent concerns.

“Great caution and discretion must be exercised in appointing the next INEC Chairman. The appointee must be strong-willed, beyond reproach, non-partisan and capable of commanding both national and international confidence,” Eyinla warned.

Eyinla disclosed that INEC had reviewed the 2023 general elections and made 142 recommendations, out of which 86 requiring administrative action had already been implemented. Eight other recommendations demanding legal amendments — including early voting for election officials, mandatory electronic transmission of results, and a review of Section 47(1) of the Electoral Act — remain before the National Assembly.

He warned lawmakers against foot-dragging, noting that any amendment must be concluded before February 2026 when INEC is expected to release the 2027 election timetable.

On funding, the election expert projected that the next general election could cost as much as ₦870 billion (about $600 million), given inflationary pressures and Nigeria’s complex electoral terrain. He insisted that at least 65 percent of the required funds must be appropriated and released in 2025 and 2026 to allow INEC procure technologies, conduct continuous voter registration and secure election materials.

On security, he recalled over 50 attacks on INEC offices between 2019 and 2023, including the killing of staff members. He urged the early deployment of security personnel, proper training to prevent partisanship, and the use of modern surveillance technology to deter vote-buying, secure polling units and protect internally displaced persons.

Eyinla also expressed concern over Nigeria’s declining voter turnout, which dropped to 26.7% in 2023, the lowest since 1999. He warned that continued voter apathy could erode the legitimacy of elected governments.

On technology, he urged INEC to strengthen its electoral technology framework and be wary of cyber threats, especially coordinated disinformation campaigns. While praising the introduction of BVAS and the IReV portal, he described the failure to upload presidential results in real time during the 2023 polls as a “dark stain” that must not recur.

“The 2027 election must not be bought by the highest bidder. It must be peaceful, credible and transparent in order to consolidate Nigeria’s democracy,” he cautioned.

The retreat brought together civil society leaders, election experts, and policymakers to chart pathways for safeguarding Nigeria’s democracy ahead of 2027.

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