Nigeria’s World Cup hopes rise after CAF adjusts qualification criteria
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Nigeria has received a major boost in their 2026 World Cup qualification hopes as the Confederation of African Football (CAF) revised the qualifying rules following Eritrea’s withdrawal from the competition.
Eritrea’s exit has caused a significant imbalance, leaving Group E with only five teams instead of six.
To maintain fairness, CAF and FIFA are considering removing points earned against the bottom-placed team in each group when determining the best runners-up.
In a circular dated March 14, 2025, and signed by CAF’s Director of Tournaments and Events, Samson Adamu, the body explained that whenever a group has fewer than five teams due to withdrawal or disqualification, results against the lowest-ranked or withdrawn teams will not count when comparing second-placed sides.
The adjustment, made in line with Article 11.5 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 preliminary competition regulations, ensures uniformity in selecting the four best runners-up across Africa.
If the proposed adjustment takes effect, Burkina Faso, DR Congo, Madagascar, and Gabon could each lose six points, reshaping the qualification table.
On the other hand, Cameroon (–4 points) and Nigeria could move higher in the standings, improving their chances of reaching the World Cup playoffs.
The change could prove crucial for Nigeria, who currently sit outside the top position after earning only two points against bottom-placed Zimbabwe.
With the new rule excluding results against the lowest-ranked sides, the Super Eagles’ qualification chances have received a major boost.
With upcoming fixtures against Lesotho and Benin, Nigeria will aim to capitalize on the revised criteria, secure key victories, and revive their bid to return to the global stage after missing out on the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
CAF reaffirmed that the adjustment was necessary to ensure fairness and balance in the competition’s structure, while maintaining transparency and sporting integrity throughout the qualifying process despite unexpected team withdrawals.
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