2027: Obi needs wider northern acceptance, not youth endorsement – Analyst

A Kano-based political analyst, Hassan Ibrahim, has said the support of northern youth groups alone cannot determine whether the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress ( NDC), Peter Obi will win the 2027 presidential election.

Ibrahim said while consultation with youth groups was important for political acceptance, it was wrong to conclude that Obi could not become president without the backing of a northern youth organisation.

He spoke in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST while reacting to a recent statement by Amb. Abdul Danbature, National President of the Arewa Youth Assembly for Good Leadership, who said Obi could not become Nigeria’s president without the support of northern youth.

Danbature had accused the former Anambra State governor of failing to consult northern youth before announcing his presidential ambition and argued that Northern Nigeria would support a candidate who had supported former President Muhammadu Buhari.

Ibrahim, however, said political consultation was not a constitutional requirement for anyone seeking the presidency, although it remained an important and strategic part of political engagement.

“Consultation in politics is not mandatory or constitutional, but it is very crucial and strategic. However, consultation with a northern youth group cannot be a yardstick for winning a presidential election because youth votes alone cannot determine who wins a presidential election in a country like Nigeria,” he said.

He recalled that Obi had engaged with northern youth before the 2023 presidential election and was commended by some of them for doing so, yet he did not win the election.

According to him, the development showed that consultation could improve a candidate’s acceptability but could not automatically translate into electoral victory.

“In the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi consulted the northern youth group, and they even commended him for consulting them before formally declaring his intention to run. But he went on to lose the election despite that consultation,” Ibrahim said.

He said northern votes remained important in presidential elections because of the region’s large population, but stressed that the support of one youth organisation should not be equated with the support of the entire north.

“The electoral history of Nigeria has shown that northern votes are a factor in winning the presidential election because of the population size. But that is entirely different from saying that a candidate needs the backing of the northern youth group before winning the election,” he said.

Ibrahim advised Obi to widen his engagement in the north by consulting different interest groups, including youth organisations, traditional rulers, religious leaders, farmers and community leaders.

He said Obi would need to communicate his plans directly to northerners and make deliberate efforts to understand and address their concerns.

“For Peter Obi to improve his support base in northern Nigeria, he needs to engage, dialogue and consult with all the interest groups in the region,” he said.

The analyst also urged Obi to communicate his message in local languages, particularly Hausa, to reach a wider section of the northern population.

He said effective use of Hausa would make it easier for Obi to explain his policies and campaign promises to voters and counter negative perceptions about him.

“More importantly, he should use the Hausa language as a means of communicating with the larger part of the North. That will help convey his message and campaign promises directly to his target voters,” Ibrahim said.

He noted that Obi would also have to address what he described as negative perceptions and allegations being circulated against him in parts of the North.

According to him, there are claims portraying Obi as hostile to Muslims and northerners, including allegations that he destroyed mosques and sent law-abiding northerners back to the north during his time as governor of Anambra State.

He also mentioned allegations linking Obi to the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and claims that he would release its leader, Nnamdi Kanu, if elected president.

Ibrahim said Obi needed to directly address such issues instead of allowing them to shape public opinion about him.

“There are sponsored campaigns from opposition parties in the region aimed at blackmailing Peter Obi. He has to do much more to tackle the perceptions about him, including allegations that he destroyed Muslim worship centres and sent law-abiding northerners residing in his state back home during his tenure as governor,” he said.

“He also has to address the campaign that he is backing IPOB and the allegation that he intends to release its leader, Nnamdi Kanu, if he becomes president,” he added.

The analyst said Obi should not limit his engagement to politicians but should build relationships with traditional and religious leaders as well as youth organisations across the region.

“He has to engage with the youth groups, traditional and religious leaders, sell himself to them and show them his real plan for the North,” Ibrahim said.

He also advised Obi to present a clear plan for tackling insecurity, particularly because insecurity has affected farming and livelihoods across many northern communities.

According to him, Obi should explain how his administration would protect farmers and support agricultural production if elected.

“He needs to communicate to them his genuine intent and commitment to ending insecurity in the North when he becomes president. He should also reveal his plans for farmers and explain how he intends to provide adequate support to northerners who are largely farmers and depend on farming to feed themselves and earn a living,” he said.

Ibrahim argued that a clear agricultural and security agenda could help Obi gain the confidence of voters who are directly affected by insecurity and economic hardship.

He further said Obi must work to change the perception in the North that he is primarily a southern or Christian candidate.

According to him, Obi’s performance in the South-East during the 2023 election contributed to the perception in parts of the north that his political project is mainly regional.

“His performance in the South-East in 2023 has created a perception among people in the North that he is principally a southern candidate. Therefore, Peter Obi needs to demonstrate through people, policies and presence that he is building a genuinely Nigerian political project,” Ibrahim said.

He said Obi’s campaign structure should reflect the diversity of Nigeria, including his campaign blueprint, spokespersons, policy team and grassroots supporters.

“His campaign blueprint, spokespersons, policy team and grassroots supporters should clearly reflect a Nigerian project. To improve his performance in the North, Obi should intentionally establish himself as a national candidate and not a regional or religious candidate,” he said.

Ibrahim also urged Obi to bring respected northern political and community leaders into his coalition and campaign team to strengthen his connection with voters in the region.

He said such engagement would help demonstrate that Obi’s political ambition was not restricted to the South-East or to any particular religious group.

The analyst maintained that Obi’s challenge in the north was therefore not simply about securing the endorsement of a particular youth organisation but about building broad-based political acceptance.

He said the former governor needed to be present in northern communities, engage directly with different groups and provide practical answers to issues affecting the region.

Ibrahim also called for a credible northern economic and security agenda that would address the concerns of ordinary people.

“Lastly, he should have in place a credible Northern Economic and Security Agenda,” he said.

2027: Obi needs wider northern acceptance, not youth endorsement – Analyst