2027: Four major hurdles threaten Obi–Makinde alliance – Presidential aide

By Johnbosco Agbakwuru

ABUJA —AHEAD of the January 16, 2027 presidential election, the Senior Special Assistant to President Bola Tinubu on Media and Special Duties, Tunde Rahman has said that four major obstacles could frustrate the emerging rapprochement between the presidential candidate of the Nigerian Democratic Congress, NDC, Peter Obi, and Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, involving into a broader opposition alliance.

The presidential aide identified personal ambition, zoning, political structure and trust deficit as the critical hurdles that opposition leaders must overcome if they are to forge a credible coalition against the President.

His assessment comes amid renewed speculation of an opposition realignment, following a private meeting in Ibadan between Obi and Makinde—once on opposing political paths in the 2023 election—and their subsequent joint appearances at public events.

Recall that Mr. Peter Obi, who was the 2023 Labour Party, presidential candidate, recently appeared at the inauguration of Makinde’s Allied People’s Movement (APM) Presidential Campaign Office in Abuja.

Makinde wants to unseat President Tinubu on the platform of APM platform, while Obi retains a substantial support base through the “Obidient” movement is contesting on the NDC platform.

The two leaders, who were on opposite sides during the 2023 election cycle, were seen together at a private meeting in Ibadan, Oyo State capital, followed by joint appearances at public events including the inauguration of the APM presidential Campaign Office in Abuja . That campaign office belongs to Governor Makinde.

Rahman described Obi’s appearance at the campaign office of another presidential aspirant as unusual, saying it had naturally heightened speculation about a possible political understanding between the two men.

He said, however, that the development should be regarded as “a signal, not yet a coalition.”

He said: “The Obi-Makinde rapprochement comes after a plan by G-100, an amorphous group of opposition stakeholders advocating a united opposition front.

“Obi’s appearance at the inauguration of Makinde’s campaign office may be seen as raising the stakes in that plan. It was the first time in recent memory that a presidential candidate would appear at the opening of a campaign office of a rival candidate. Do the two have a working alliance, or is this just make-believe? Sources close to both camps say their discussions centred on “national interest, governance, and 2027 permutations.”

“In 2023, Makinde, then a PDP chieftain, was part of the influential G-5 governors who worked against the then Peoples Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, while Obi led the Labour Party’s surprise third-force movement. Their paths diverged sharply on that 2023 campaign trail.

“But with four months to the January 16, 2027 presidential election, are the political realities forcing a rethink?
The answer to the foregoing may only be conjectural. The big question, however, is whether opposition leaders can put ego aside and present a united front in 2027.

“In recent months, Governor Makinde has taken a more independent posture, often criticising federal policies while also calling for opposition unity. Wracked by an internal crisis within his PDP, he moved to the Allied People’s Movement to contest on the platform. Obi, on his part, has continued to mobilise his key support base under the “Obidient” movement and has not ruled out another presidential run.”

On the four hurdles, Rahman rhetorically asked: “Beyond handshakes and meetings, does the opposition actually have the numbers, structure, and unity to pose a real threat to President Tinubu and the APC?

“In my view, at least four factors are critical in deciding what happens.

“The first is the incumbency advantage. President Tinubu controls the awesome federal machinery. That lever means a lot. He has many achievements under the Renewed Hope Agenda that will work in his favour: improving and stabilising the economy with key positive indicators; many legacy roads and infrastructure projects; strategic federal appointments; student loans; the CrediCorp programme; and the CNG initiative, among others.

“The “Renewed Hope Agenda: from Reforms to Prosperity” narrative is built on the bet that reforms will start showing tangible results now that the economy has stabilised. Lower food inflation, foreign exchange stability, and completed infrastructure projects will be the campaign touchpoints.

“The second and closely related point is that beating an incumbent in Nigeria is historically very hard. President Goodluck Jonathan, who was defeated by the APC coalition in 2015, is the only incumbent to have lost reelection in Nigeria’s history. And this was done by a coalition powered by late President Muhammadu Buhari and President Tinubu. Can the opposition reenact 2015 in 2027?

“Third, party structure matters. The APC presently controls 31 states and has the largest grassroots party structure. Governors in the few other states not controlled by the party have declared support for President Tinubu’s reelection.These include Governors Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra State in APGA, Labour Party’s Alex Otti in Abia and Accord Party’s Ademola Adeleke of Osun State. Some in the opposition may scoff at this point, arguing that the people, not the governors, will decide. That still does not diminish the governors’ influence.

“Lastly, the opposition’s new maths is confounding. According to them, Tinubu won the election with 37% of the vote. That is the opposition’s opening lines. They will then say: Atiku + Obi/Kwankwaso + Makinde will provide the theoretical numbers to defeat the incumbent.”

He cautioned, however, that votes secured by different candidates in one election could not automatically be added together in another.

“Yes, in 2023, the opposition parties ran separately, splitting the anti-APC vote. In 2027, they must run together if they hope to pull any surprise. This is easier said than done,” he said.

He cited the 2015 election as evidence that a united opposition could defeat an incumbent president.

Rahman said the 2015 experience could not simply be replicated without resolving the leadership, structural and strategic differences within the current opposition.

According to him, President Tinubu will also enter the 2027 contest with the considerable advantage of incumbency, control of the federal political machinery and a record that the administration intends to present to voters.

He cited the administration’s economic reforms, infrastructure projects, student-loan scheme, CrediCorp initiative and compressed natural gas programme as key components of the Renewed Hope Agenda.

Rahman said the administration’s campaign narrative would increasingly focus on the transition from economic reforms to prosperity as the benefits of the reforms become more evident.

He nevertheless acknowledged that the cost of living would remain a critical determinant of the 2027 contest.

Food prices, transportation costs and electricity, he said, would be among the key “kitchen-table” issues that could influence voters’ decisions.

Security would also remain crucial, particularly in the North and Middle Belt.

Any major deterioration in the security situation, he warned, could become a potent campaign issue and be exploited by the opposition.

Rahman said the Obi-Makinde rapprochement was important because it suggested that opposition leaders were beginning to recognise the consequences of their failure to unite in 2023.

But he stressed that meetings and handshakes alone could not produce an election-winning coalition.

“If they can agree on a framework and bring in more governors, the coalition becomes serious. If not, it remains mere optics,” he said.

According to him, a credible opposition challenge would require the emergence of a consensus presidential candidate early enough to build a coherent nationwide campaign.

It would also require substantial gubernatorial backing and a formidable grassroots structure capable of converting political agreements into votes.

He suggested that an alliance capable of attracting between eight and 10 governors would significantly alter the political equation.

Without such developments, he said, the opposition would remain fragmented, giving Tinubu a substantial advantage.

“The 2027 election will not be won on personalities alone,” Rahman said. “It will also be won on structure, strategy, economic conditions, security and the ability to mobilise voters.”

In his assessment, the Obi-Makinde rapprochement has therefore become a test of whether opposition leaders can learn from the central lesson of 2023, that division can cost them the presidency.

Whether the emerging consultations develop into a genuine political threat, he said, will depend on the willingness of Obi, Makinde, Atiku and other opposition figures to place collective strategy above individual presidential ambitions.

“For now, President Tinubu is the favourite,” Rahman said. “But for the first time since 2023, the APC may now have something to worry about.”

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