Why deepening poverty might be unavoidable for decades, by Dele Sobowale

“Those who deal in ideas, if they are wise, will welcome attack. Only a peaceful passage should dismay them; for it proves that the ideas don’t affect anyone very much.”

Professor John Galbraith, 1908-2006, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS,  p 97.

Bad news. Irrespective of who wins the 2027 elections, one thing is guaranteed to follow. Nigeria’s poverty rate will get worse before it gets better. Three major reasons account for this conclusion – demographics, unsustainable debt burden and atrocious budget implementation. Consequently, Nigeria will most likely retain the title of the World Poverty Capital – right past 2031, 2035 ad infinitum.

The politicians in various political camps will attempt to convince you otherwise. Remember this: however, a honest politician is an oxymoron – a contradiction in terms. Lying and politics are like yam and eggs, semovita and stew. They are inseparable. Thus, if you set out in search of truth, forget political office holders and their appointees. They would say anything to mislead the public for their own benefit.

HOW GOVERNMENTS DEEPEN POVERTY IN NIGERIA

“No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which by far, the greater part of the numbers are poor and miserable.” Adam Smith

 Even the most partisan politician, economic and financial expert must admit that the vast majority of Nigerians “are poor and miserable”. We have just celebrated formerly Muslim and Christian festivals – Eid-el-Fitr and Easter – with both resembling days declared for national mourning. Millions of our people had very little to eat on days which, twelve years ago, were spent feasting. Most parents could not afford to buy new clothes for their children. Kids could be seen stuffed, uncomfortably, into dresses they have outgrown. Extremely few have hope for the next festival; or, for that matter, for any return to happier days.

MOST OF THE WEALTHY DON’T CARE ABOUT THE POOR

“If you are in the luckiest 1% of humanity, you owe it to the rest of humanity to think about the other 99%.”Warren Buffett, American multi-billionaire, who plans to give 99% of his honestly-earned wealth away to charities – instead of his children.

 To the best of my knowledge, there is no single Nigerian in public or private life who is in the 1% top wealth bracket, who is considering doing anything like that. Instead, Nigeria’s political and private sector oligarchs seem hell-bent on impoverishing the poor further – while leaving the bulk of their funds to be fought over; after they depart without taking a kobo with them. Fortune sometimes plays a trick on them. Sometimes their questionable wealth ends up in secret accounts abroad, without the knowledge of their proposed inheritors; and are lost for ever. The late young Nigerian banker, whose ownership of over 100 properties in plush areas of London, and late General Jerry Useni, who forfeited properties in London, are representatives of Nigeria’s uppermost class; who rob Nigerians to enrich foreign nations.

To be quite candid, most of Nigeria’s topmost people, particularly in government and politics, are not interested in eradicating poverty. How else would they have the opportunity to flaunt their opulence? The truth is: right there in the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, SGF, there are proposals gathering dust, which can reduce poverty substantially – if implemented; but which have been routinely ignored by every government in office.

AGRICULTURE IS TRENDING TOWARDS CATASTROPHE

“Burn down your cities and leave our farms, and your cities will spring up again, as if by magic; but destroy our farms and the grass will grow in the streets of every city in the country.” William Jennings Bryan, 1860-1925.

Nigerian farms are currently on fires set by arsonists and pyromaniacs; resulting in increasing population of people into Internally Displaced Persons, IDPs, mostly from rural farms. The last information received about IDPs is captured below.

Obviously, no nation can escape escalating poverty if over three million people are driven from its farmlands. Nigeria occupies the unenviable position of being one of the few nations globally whose population is increasing, at the same time as more farmers are running away from the farms they once tenderly cultivated. More concerning, there is no hope of return any time soon – not in Borno, Benue.

Weekend Daily Trust’s, April 11, 2026, SPECIAL REPORT titled: Rainy season: Battles before farmers, partly summarises the national predicament on agriculture in general and food production in particular. Farmers, everywhere, have been driven to despair and are being forced of the farms by a combination of government policies, or lack of them, and pervasive banditry. Alhaji Hassan Hussaini, a farmer in Katsina State was reported to have said: “As a farmer, one or two months after you have planted your crops, bandits would come, map your farmland and ask you to quit.

So, there is nothing you can do because you can no longer go near that farm.” Hussaini is not alone in that situation. Farmers in places separated by long distances such as Yelwa Yauri, in Kebbi and Gombi, in Adamawa States have reported the same capture of large areas of farming areas by hoodlums. Even herders, who were the original and largest group of terrorists, are now under attack by cattle rustlers. Herding has suddenly become the fastest way to the graveyard. Meat supply is now threatened.

The Federal Government, inadvertently or deliberately, has contributed to imminent food scarcity. Last year, President Tinubu announced “the Renewed Hope National Agricultural Mechanisation Programme aimed at improving food security and modernization farming by purchasing 2,000 tractors and over 9,000 agricultural tools”.

The point had been made by me at the time that the tractors and tools might not solve the problem. Three reasons accounted for the skepticism. One, government policies might impede progress. Two, 2000 tractors were too few for the daunting task on hand. Three, and most importantly, tractors don’t drive themselves. Operators must be engaged and maintenance crew must be available to move into rural areas. I doubted if the FG and state governments could find 2000 gallant men; ready and willing to risk death by going to work in the farms. As it turned out, few, if any of the tractors have been distributed. It is doubtful that they will have much impact on this year’s food output.

HOPE: MIRAGE FOR MANY

“Security of lives and properties is the prime duty of governments”. That has become axiomatic. For Nigerians, particularly rural dwellers and farmers, hope is a receding mirage. The worsening incidents of insecurity speak with more brutal force to the people more than the crocodile tears of leaders – President, Governors, Service Chiefs.

Read the masses obituaries and despair.

“Military had intel 3 days before Borno attack”  Zulum

Bandits abduct Katsina residents, demand N150m ransom.”

Bandits displace 39 Kaduna communities.”

Daily Trust, April 13, 2026.

Hope? Forget it.

•Follow me on Facebook @ J Israel Biola.

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