US bombing Sokoto: FG on the horns of dilemma, by Dele Sobowale

“I am beginning to wonder how many fools it takes to make the term ‘My Fellow citizens‘” – Honore de Balzac, 1799-1850 in LOST ILLUSIONS.

President Tinubu enjoys my fullest sympathies right now. The Christmas Day bombing carried out by American forces, which was envisioned as a step in the right direction, has unleashed more problems in its aftermath. Unlike opposition political elements condemning the president’s departure for leave in Europe, I strongly believe that a few weeks’ rest is in order – for his own sake as well as ours.

Certainly, the most urgent question on his mind now is: where do we go from here? Trump’s announcement has boxed the government with his utterances. US obviously intervened on the side of Christians; not to solve the complex problems of insecurity. As a Christian, I tremble at the likely repercussions of that position. Unfortunately, by sanctioning the bombing, the FGN has been roped into the reason for carrying it out. That is not in our national interest.

The breaking news came very late on Christmas Day. President Trump had flippantly announced that he had sent “Christmas presents” to terrorists in Nigeria. A US Congressman, Riley Moore, also pronounced that “This year, thanks to @ POTUS, radical Islamic terrorists were on the receiving end of 12 Tomahawk missiles as a present”. To allay the fears of Fellow Nigerians that America acted unilaterally, a Federal Government spokesman, Nigeria’s Director of Defence Information, stated that the operation was jointly conducted; authorized by the Federal Government; and carried out based on credible information”, according to Arise TV, December 29, 2025.

Earlier on, a statement issued by spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said “the collaboration, which led to precision airstrikes on terrorists’ targets, involved intelligence sharing, strategic coordination and other forms of support in line with international law, respect for Nigeria’s sovereignty and shared security commitments”. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, told CNN that the attacks were sanctioned by President Tinubu. Given all the official statements above, millions of Nigerians might be forgiven for thinking that a few successful airstrikes had been carried out against terrorists on December 25. Donald Trump, frequently one to make a mountain out of a pebble, or vice versa, did not wait for the body counts to misinform Americans that several Islamic terrorists were killed.

Gullible Representative Moore, as well as Nigerian officials, was too eager to join the “victory” parade – by claiming that Nigerians were engaged in “joint operations” with the Americans. I would have joined the bandwagon myself. But, I was not born a fool; and I have struggled to stay that way. My dad and mum drilled into my head, very early in life, to always double check information, irrespective of the purveyor, before believing them. So, early in the morning, I called a long time friend in Sokoto, around the Shagari village axis to ask if he was aware of any bombing incident.

He was. The story – fact, fiction, rumours – were already all over Sokoto State and even Jega in Kebbi State. One strong fact emerged from my investigation. President Donald Trump had lied to Americans and the whole world about killing terrorists in Nigeria. All the Tomahawk missiles had landed harmlessly – far away from terrorists and non-terrorists. The “credible intelligence” reports on which strikes were based turned out to be either totally misleading or subversive.

HABEAS CORPUS (LATIN) MEANS “PRODUCE THE BODY”

“Every lie has an expiry date” according to a sage; whose name I cannot now quickly recall. Trump’s lie, to which foolish Nigerians, officials and non-officials, clung as if their lives depended on it, was exposed by the morning light on Boxing Day. However, before going into the substance of my submission, there is a need to explain a bit about Habeas Corpus. In murder cases in the USA, when circumstantial evidence fails to provide proof of guilt or innocence beyond reasonable doubt, the prosecutor or defense attorney might ask for the victim’s corpse to be produced.

Now, let us return to the hoax started by Trump, and quickly accepted by Nigerians eager to be duped by an unreliable witness. Trump did not wait for an official report of the attacks before making his bogus announcement. The attacks were conducted using missiles and/or drones – which don’t conduct post-mission body counts. So, there was no way the President of the USA or any of the Nigerian collaborators, could have known what really happened – until early morning.

On the morning of Boxing Day, Nigerian residents of the communities mistakenly bombed trooped out to find out what nearly hit them. They saw a lot of strange objects. But, the report everywhere – Sokoto and Kwara – was the same. There were no casualties; no traces of blood; no arms dropped by fleeing terrorists. It was not until Monday, December 29, 2025 that Daily Trust filed a report – ‘US airstrikes: Casualties likely in Sokoto’. That is suspicious and unlike US bombing operations elsewhere in the world; where frequently the action is recorded live. All the attacks on boats off the coast of Venezuela were recorded live. The four days’ interval raised the possibility of AI-generated casualty reports. As far as I am concerned, somebody will have to take me there to view the bodies. Right now, I remain convinced that the strikes represented a failed mission based on extremely faulty intelligence on both sides.

Trump is still going on the victory lap. But, Nigerian officials should expect a volcanic eruption of insults – if it turns out that the celebrated airstrikes amounted to a quixotic venture and nothing more. Even if a few corpses are produced, the question of costs and benefits will remain to be answered. In other words, will the death of one dozen bandits be considered sufficient reward for the expenses, time and efforts spent on the exercise? Furthermore, will it permanently cripple ISIS? Information available would suggest otherwise for several reasons.

WRONG WAR, WRONG PLACE, WRONG TIME, WRONG C-I-C 

“I say when you get into a war, you should win as quickly as you can; because your losses become a function of the duration of the war…” – President Eisenhower, 1890-1969.

Eisenhower was the commander of the Allied Forces during World War II. Trump was a coward who refused to fight for America. He is the wrong Commander-In-Chief, C-I-C; because he does not have the foggiest idea what war is all about. To accept his leadership in his self-declared war in Nigeria would amount to monumental blunder; it is the kiss of death for Nigeria and for many Nigerians – if he continues with our encouragement.

It needs to be repeated that Nigeria’s security problems cannot be reduced to just Christian genocide. Thousands of Muslims are also being killed by ISIS, Boko Haram and other murderous Islamic radicals. Herdsmen kill more people indiscriminately, all over Nigeria, than any group. For instance, in Taraba State, the major conflict rages between the Juguns, the indigenous settlers of large areas of the state and herdsmen over dwindling land resources. Religion is secondary. Clearly, Trump is dragging the FG into the wrong war.

Starting with Sokoto in the North-West and Kwara in the North-Central is probably the most indisputable proof of US intelligence failure. ISIS activities are concentrated in the North-East and some parts of North-Central. Certainly, no Nigerian intelligence officer would have selected Sokoto as the epicentre of ISIS activities in Nigeria. Because Trump is never one to allow facts to get in the way of his ignorance and illusions, the FG runs the risk of being dragged into more of the misadventures which the US will undertake in the future in the North-West; which will further damage the FG’s relationship with the people. Nobody whose house is demolished by a bomb wrongly-targeted can be expected to understand the good intentions underlying the measures. Right now, some residents of Offa, Kwara State are bewildered. Is this the sort of security the Nigerian government has to offer and for how long will that continue? Their confusion and alarm are compounded by the sneaky feeling that Trump, and not Tinubu, might be calling the shots which could annihilate them. Nobody loves to be used for target practice; which is what the US is now doing with selected parts of Nigeria.

A late American General admonished the President Johnson administration by declaring the war in Vietnam as “wrong war, in the wrong place and at the wrong time”. He was attacked by those who wrongly believed the US could win – until the war was lost.

It is doubtful if American military power can intervene successfully in the Nigerian security situation. The US has done well where right and wrong are clearly defined. When Iraq invaded Kuwait, America moved in and secured a quick victory; when Iraq was invaded based on the lie that it had weapons of mass destruction, the country was devastated but the war was longer and more costly than envisaged. Nigeria presents a far more complex problem than America can solve by military action.

Finally, it is doubtful if ISIS will stop operations on account of the bombing on Christmas Day. Instead, it will probably take advantage of the error of judgment to dissolve into small units – which can carry out several low-key attacks over wider territories for a long time to come. In the end, the most important question is: How can Tinubu regain full control of the security architecture of Nigeria? He needs us to help.

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