These ‘structures of criminality’, by Rotimi Fasan

The African Democratic Party was at this time last year a nondescript organisation struggling to stay afloat as a political party. Ralph Nwosu, the founder of the party, had turned the chairmanship of the party into something of a life appointment in which he had served for seventeen years. By July he had turned the party, together with its entire leadership, over to a group of prominent politicians, led by David Mark, a retired soldier and former President of the Nigerian Senate, and Rauf Aregbesola, an estranged ally of President Bola Tinubu and a former governor of Osun State. They established a so-called coalition of opposition figures out to wrest power from the president. Mark and Aregbesola respectively became the Chairman and Secretary of the ADC, even as the party welcomed into its fold, not membership (most of them still kept the membership card of their party), prominent opposition figures like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi and Nasir El-Rufai among others. 

The political landscape suddenly changed and took on a life of its own; or so Nigerians were led to believe as these politicians and their spokespersons fanned out across media stations, granting interviews and releasing press statements about the failings of the Bola Tinubu administration and how the administration would be kicked out of office. The mood was generally festive even when nothing concrete was being proposed as alternatives to the policies of the government the coalition leaders found objectionable and claimed had worsened the living condition of Nigerians. Some people were already counting the number of days the ruling APC-led government had left to be in office. There were loud talks about Bola Tinubu finally going back to Lagos. Yet, perceptive people saw no future in the coalition. It was nothing more than a marriage of convenience, a contraption put together with the sole aim to wrest power from Tinubu. 

What none of these politicians told Nigerians was who among them would replace Bola Tinubu as president. Each made their intention to be on the ballot very clear, spoke as the long-expected messiah that would rescue Nigerians from the perceived misrule of Tinubu and mentioned their readiness to support whoever emerged as the preferred candidate of the coalition to square up against Tinubu as the next president in 2027. They presented a united front that perceptive Nigerians knew was a ruse and said so in very clear terms. There was no doubt about Atiku Abubakar’s immersion in the ADC. He was the moving spirit of the coalition, the driver who knew where the special purpose vehicle that was the ADC was headed. But he played the part of good team member, one among equals, and brought himself to their level. Everyone who knew him and knew of his ambition to be president realised he was not in the ADC for a play. He was in dead earnest when he said he would be on the ballot. 

Aside Atiku the other prominent members of the coalition had one leg inside while the other remained firmly outside. Yet they all committed openly to the ADC. That was the first lie none of them or their supporters was willing to confront. Rotimi Amaechi seemed invested in the ADC but he could not boast of a serious base. Rabiu Kwankwanso who was openly flirting with the APC, negotiating and re-negotiating for an appointment, could not really be considered a part of the ADC crowd at this time. All eyes were, however, on Peter Obi who, against all expectations, also hopped on the ADC bandwagon. He had all but given up on the Labour Party that gave him over six million votes just three years earlier. While he proclaimed his commitment to the ADC, it was clear to other Nigerians except his  supporters that his stay in the ADC was temporary. Nobody who knows Peter Obi’s politics believed he would remain in the ADC. Not even Obi believed that. Yet, only he aside Atiku was seen as a serious contender for the presidency in the opposition. This, given his 2023 performance. But the political climate has changed. 

After the initial euphoria that greeted the emergence of the ADC coalition, reality set in. The ruling APC entrenched itself further and gained more supporters to its side, many of them were incumbent governors and National Assembly members from the opposition parties. They joined the APC with the entire machinery of their support base. Between July and December, about ten of these high-calibre politicians defected to the ADC as full-fledged members, unlike the bench warmers with clashing egos who claimed to be part of a doomed coalition. The tune was gradually changing as optimism gave way to the manufactured plaints of an APC-led one-party state. But still the coalition members kept up the pretence. Peter Obi by December, 2025, summoned courage to pick up the membership card of the ADC. Again, it was a mere claim. He showed no membership card and kept on his lone wolf campaigns for the presidency, all through the first three months of 2026, under the guise of philanthropy across the country. 

By April, none of the coalition partners could sustain the ruse any more. Obi, apparently frustrated by the failure of his negotiations to get a free ticket in the ADC, announced he was standing for the presidency in 2027. The coalition was the last thing on his mind. Atiku followed suit in about twenty-four hours later, restating his determination to stand for the presidency and selling his candidacy to Nigerians. Amaechi was hot on the heels of Atiku in less than twenty-four hours to announce he would be contesting for the presidency too. They had taken off their gloves. The Supreme Court decision restoring David Mark and Aregbesola to the leadership of the ADC following Nafiu Bala Gombe’s suit  hastened the disintegration of the ADC coalition. Obi had apparently been waiting for such an excuse to jump ship. He did this week when he showed up beside Nigerian Democratic Congress’ Seriake Dickson followed by Kwakwanso who had been sitting on the fence. 

We all knew Peter Obi’s path to 2027 was not in the ADC. He went there only in hopes that he could, as was his wont, persuade others in the coalition to stand down for him. For once he met people who didn’t think much of his political bonafides and would not fall for his getting presidential tickets without standing for primaries. He could still get free presidential ticket in the NDC. I hope, however, he knows now what it means to have a political structure even if, to quote him, it is one fashioned in criminality. 

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