The sustainable food security trap

By Dele Sobowale

One of the paradoxes of economics is threatening to create a food crisis later during the year. Last year January, escalating food prices dragged headline inflation towards 35 per cent. A 50 kilogram bag of rice was going for N80- 100,000 – depending on location. Governor Bago of Niger State was contemplating placing embargo on sale of food commodities, especially rice to buyers outside the state. 

He was not alone. The Federal Government actually introduced a food committee to patrol Nigerian highways and discourage hoarding by middlemen – who were blamed for price hikes everywhere. The Nigerian Customs Service and even the Army and Police got involved in arresting transporters accused of smuggling food. Few people in government were willing to admit that poor harvest and low productivity were partly responsible for the price increase.

Fortunately, as every level 100 Economics understands better than politicians and their appointees everywhere, the principle of supply and demand was at work. When supply is low, for whatever reason, prices of commodities sky-rocket; and when there is more supply, prices drop on the aggregate. High prices induce producers, in this case, farmers, to work harder to produce more; in the hope of benefiting from prevalent high prices. Thus despite the increasing insecurity and ransoms demanded by bandits, and paid, most farmers still went to work to expand land brought under cultivation and to produce more food. Granted, for some commodities, food importation increased available supply significantly; resulting in steadily lower food prices. But, there can be no dispute that the glut now being expressed with regard to tomatoes was not totally influenced by imports. This is mostly a local phenomenon.

  Surely, Nigerians should be happy with food prices falling. In reality, consumers are; farmers are in trouble. That is the boomerang effect when market forces are left to operate without a guiding hand. Farmers, nationwide, have been generating losses because the scarcities and high prices, which lured them to produce more, have vanished.  

A glut now exists and it is driving prices further down. That is bad news for farmers and will soon be bad news for other Nigerians; because the low food prices presently enjoyed will soon end and prices will start shooting up again.  The reasons for concern bothering on alarm are easily explained; and the need for pro-active measures is very clear.

Hunger is getting worse, not better in West Africa

“Nigeria among worst as W’Africa hunger deepens – UN, Report, January 17, 2026.

In every country and at all times, some individuals take it upon themselves to focus on one critical aspect of national life; in the strong belief that governments, even in the richest countries cannot do everything. Knowledgeable and concerned citizens can and should contribute, without expecting any reward, towards the betterment of society. Late US President John F Kennedy, 1917-1963, summarized this idea best during his inauguration address in January, 1960. “Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country.” Unfortunately, most Nigerians have been fed on the notion that governments should provide for them, while they give nothing in return. That is perhaps the root cause of our under-development. Fortunately, there is still a small minority of Nigerians willing to help this country.

  I turn to some of my sources in nine Northern states each time thoughts turn to food – which is a passionate matter. Food unites the President and the pauper like nothing else does. Everybody must eat; otherwise nothing gets done.

“An army marches on its stomach”, said Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821, after losing the war against Russia to hungry troops. Two hundred and twenty million Nigerians constitute an army which must be fed for rapid and sustainable progress to be achieved. Right now, we are heading for trouble after our short-lived reprieve from high food prices. 

According to the report by the United Nations World Food Programme “no fewer than 55 million people across West and Central Africa are expected to face crisis levels of hunger or worse during the June-August 2026 lean season, unless urgent funding and humanitarian action are mobilized.” Three months constitute 25 per cent of the year. Furthermore, Nigeria sits in the midst of four countries – including Chad, Cameroon and Niger – which account for 77 per cent of the population at risk. Nobody needs a doctorate degree in demographics to know which country will be most affected – Nigeria.  

Why proactive action is needed

“A stitch in time saves nine”. That was wisdom drummed into our heads in primary school in Lagos. Nigerian governments, not just the FG, would need to develop urgent pre-emptive steps to avert a food crisis worse than what the nation experienced in 2023 to late 2025. After reading the WFP report, I decided to conduct field work; by calling long-term associates in the Northern States for an update on the food situation, particularly, prospective production. The situation is actually more alarming than even WFP projects.

Low prices have discouraged planting generally. Insecurity and ransom payments render farming risky and highly unprofitable in 2026. Millions of farmers are either dropping out or returning to subsistence farming. That is the ultimate bad news.

  Consequently, a poly-crisis is developing in Nigeria’s rural areas. Pervasive insecurity, declining purchasing power, deepening poverty and imminent food scarcity will soon be happening at the same time and strengthening each other in a manner that might make finding solutions more difficult. Of all the problems confronting us, averting another food crisis is the one government will need to address very urgently. Fortunately, this is one instance in which there are historical precedents to guide us.

Boom-and-bust cycles occur when agriculture is left entirely to market forces. Scarcity raises prices; high prices induce more production and excess supply follows; prices plummet; supply shrinks once again to drive up prices.

The Babangida administration, borrowing from the experiences of several food-surplus nations, addressed this cycle by embarking on the installation of food silos nationwide with Decree 4 of 1987, which created the Directorate of Food, Roads and Rural Infrastructure, DFRRI. Since then Nigeria has had the capacity to procure and store excess food during the harvest period and to release the commodities when scarcity threatens. Ideally, proactive state governments should also have created food reserves facilities to complement federal efforts. That, unfortunately, has not been the case. States have neglected their responsibilities in this regard – despite the fact that every state has appointed a Commissioner of Agriculture. The FG has been left as the sole food provider for 220 million Nigerians. The food silos must be opened up urgently and stocked to avert a food disaster later in the year.

Finally, the seeming food supply surplus might not be totally explained by increased aggregate output. Poverty is getting worse. High prices have created a shift in demand.

Most consumers have dropped certain food items from their shopping list. Weak demand creates an illusion of increased supply. A roasted plantain seller in Lagos Island, we have been monitoring, has experienced low sales – despite lower prices. Paradox.

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