Rising fuel prices: Global oil supply disruption behind current hike in Nigeria – Analysts

A senior lecturer at Hussaini Adamu Polytechnic, Kazaure, Dr. Tijjani Ahmad, has explained that the recent increase in fuel prices in Nigeria is largely driven by global oil price changes, logistics challenges, and Nigeria’s past reliance on fuel imports.

Speaking on the issue in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST on Friday, Ahmad said oil prices often rise or fluctuate due to several factors affecting the global market and the cost of production.

According to him, one of the major reasons is the fluctuation in the price of crude oil at the international level.

“Oil prices are increasing or fluctuating due to so many factors. For example, global oil price fluctuates whenever there is an increase in the price of crude oil in the global market,” he said.

He explained that when the price of crude oil increases globally, it automatically affects the cost of producing fuel because crude oil is the main raw material used by refineries.

“So definitely this will affect the price of the crude, which is the input that is being used by refineries to produce the fuel. And whenever there is an increase in this input price, so definitely the output price, which is the fuel, will increase,” Ahmad added.

The lecturer also pointed to logistics challenges as another factor influencing fuel prices.

He said refineries can be affected by the cost of transporting crude oil as well as the expenses involved in processing it.

“Then secondly, we have the issue of logistics. So refineries are affected. They are affected by logistics, maybe in the supply of the crude oil or probably in the processing of the crude oil,” he explained.

According to him, any change in logistics or production costs within refineries will eventually reflect in the price consumers pay for fuel.

“So whenever there are changes in the logistic cost or the changes in the cost of production within the refinery, this will definitely affect the fuel price,” he said.

Ahmad further noted that reliance on imported petroleum products also plays a major role in shaping fuel prices in the country, especially in the past.

“Then lastly, there is reliance on imported price. Whenever a country relies on imported price, like Nigeria before, we heavily relied or we totally relied on import,” he said.

He explained that changes in the exchange rate between the naira and the dollar also affect fuel prices in such situations.

“So whenever there is a change in exchange rate, maybe naira to dollar or dollar to naira in favour of dollar, so definitely this will affect the price of fuel in the country,” he stated.

However, Ahmad said the current rise in fuel prices is mainly linked to the increase in global crude oil prices caused by ongoing international tension.

“But currently, this increase is as a result of export. As a result of a high in the price of the global price of the crude oil in the global market, due to the issue of war between America, Israel and Iran,” he said.

According to him, the conflict has disrupted the supply of crude oil in some regions, leading to scarcity in the global market.

“Which cuts the supply of this crude oil in some certain region. And definitely this will lead to scarcity and this scarcity will lead to increase in price,” Ahmad explained.

He warned that the situation may persist unless the supply disruption is resolved.

“And this will keep going off unless if there is the solution to this scarcity,”he added.

Global oil crisis now human rights concern for Nigerians – Bakoji

Also speaking, the Country Director of The International Human Rights Commission – Relief Fund Trust (IHRC–RFT), Abdullahi Bakoji Adamu, has said the rising fuel prices in Nigeria has now become a human rights concern, warning that the situation is affecting the livelihoods and welfare of ordinary citizens.

Adamu made the remarks in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST, where he explained that the sharp increase in fuel prices is largely linked to disruptions in global oil supply caused by the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

According to him, tension in the Middle East has made movement through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil routes, extremely risky for many oil shipments.

“The ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran has effectively blocked or made passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the main route for a large portion of the world’s crude oil, extremely risky,” he said.

The Strait of Hormuz is considered a major channel for global oil transportation, with about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passing through it. Any disruption along the route can therefore have a direct impact on global energy prices.

Adamu noted that the crisis has created uncertainty in the international oil market, forcing prices to rise sharply.

“From a security and human rights perspective, the sharp rise in fuel prices in Nigeria is being driven primarily by disruptions in global oil supply,” he said.

He explained that before the current crisis, crude prices were much lower but have now risen significantly due to supply risks.

“Before this crisis, oil was trading roughly between $30 and $60 per barrel, but with these supply risks, prices have surged to over $80 per barrel,” he stated.

The analyst also warned that if the conflict continues, oil prices could increase further.

“Projections suggest prices could reach between $90 and $100 per barrel if the situation persists,” he added.

Adamu pointed out that Nigeria is particularly affected because the country still imports a large portion of its refined fuel.

“For Nigeria, which still imports a large portion of its refined fuel, this global supply shock directly translates into higher pump prices,” he explained.

He stressed that the impact of rising fuel prices goes beyond the economy and directly affects the daily lives of citizens.

“The impact is not just economic. Rising fuel prices hurt ordinary Nigerians by increasing transportation and food costs, worsening poverty, and putting pressure on livelihoods,” he said.

The analyst further warned that the situation could also create security concerns if the rising cost of living continues unchecked.

“This is also a security concern because when the cost of living rises sharply, it can lead to social unrest,” he

Adamu described the situation as a human rights issue.

He noted that access to affordable energy is closely tied to people’s ability to maintain a decent standard of living.

Residents, commercial riders lament sudden increase

In Kano, DAILY POST observed that the price of petrol has risen by about N100 across several filling stations in the state.

A tricycle rider boarded in Mariri, Kabir Sule, told DAILY POST that he bought petrol at a very high price on Thursday evening.

“Yesterday evening I bought fuel for N980 per litre. Before now, we were buying it for around N880,” he said.

Another resident, Abdulaziz Shuaibu, also confirmed the increase, noting that the price had jumped within a short period.

“I bought fuel for N980. Previously, we were buying it for N880. The increase is soon going to reflect on our daily services,” he said.

Another resident Yusuf Abdulkareem revealed that he bought fuel at N963.

Rising fuel prices: Global oil supply disruption behind current hike in Nigeria – Analysts