Prove we can trust you: Obi divides the North

•Northern elders, groups, others split over one-term pledge

•Core North can’t be deceived — Yakasai

By Dickson Omobola, Ibrahim Bello, Bashir Bello, Haruna Aliyu, Ndahi Marama & Musa Ubandawaki

The pledge made by the presidential candidate of Labour Party, LP, in the 2023 general elections, Mr. Peter Obi, that he would serve one term if elected in 2027, has ignited sharp divisions across Northern Nigeria, splitting elders, political groups, and youth movements along trust lines.

Obi had made the remark to assure the electorate of his commitment to the zoning arrangement on the presidency between the North and the South.

But many believed the remark was specifically made to woo northern voters while others doubt its sincerity.

In fact, notable political camps in the region, known for its numerical advantage during elections, have been pitched against each other.

Some told Sunday Vanguard that it was just a ploy to get northern support and votes while others said Obi should be trusted by the region.

Making his case, the presidential aspirant had restated his vow to serve only one term of four years if elected president, insisting that effective leadership is defined by impact, not time spent in office.

In a statement posted via his X (formerly Twitter) handle last Sunday, Obi referenced global figures such as Abraham Lincoln, John F. Kennedy, and Nelson Mandela, noting that each led with principle and left enduring legacies despite short tenures.

“One of the greatest American Presidents, Abraham Lincoln, served only four years, yet his legacy endures as a model of principled leadership”, he said.

“Another iconic figure, John F. Kennedy, did not even complete a full term, yet his vision and ideals continue to inspire generations.

“In Africa, Nelson Mandela, revered globally as a symbol of justice and reconciliation, chose to serve only one term as President of South Africa, despite immense public pressure to stay longer.

“His decision was a deliberate act of leadership, a statement that power must serve the people, not the self. Indeed, history shows that the longer many African leaders remain in power, the more likely they are to be corrupted by it.

“Longevity in office is not a mark of success; rather, it is purposeful, accountable service – however brief – that defines true statesmanship.

“It is within this context that I reiterate my vow: I will serve only one term of four years if elected President. And that vow is sacrosanct”.

Obi said his commitment was not a political gimmick, but a decision rooted in conviction and supported by his record of service in Anambra State where, according to him, he fulfilled clear and measurable promises without deviation.

Addressing recent jabs at his one-term declaration, he noted that some critics questioned his sincerity, with one suggesting psychiatric evaluation and another claiming he wouldn’t be believed even “if I swore by a shrine.”

“I understand the basis of their skepticism”, Obi said.

“They are judging me by their own standards — where political promises are made to be broken.

“But they forget, or perhaps choose to ignore, that Peter Obi is not cut from that cloth”.

The presidential aspirant stressed that public trust must be restored in Nigeria’s leadership and that focused, transparent governance can yield real results within the constitutional four-year window.

“Forty-eight months is enough for any leader who is focused and prepared to make a meaningful difference”, he declared.

“I do not intend to stay a day longer”.

Obi outlined key priorities if elected, including sanitising governance, tackling insecurity through proper use of national resources, improving education and healthcare, supporting small businesses, and transforming Nigeria into a productive economy driven by agriculture, technology, and manufacturing.

“These are not utopian dreams. They are realistic, actionable goals that are achievable within four years,” he said.

The politician concluded by affirming that he would not exceed a single term under any circumstance, describing his vow as a solemn commitment to purpose, not power.

National question

Speaking on the matter, National Publicity Secretary of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Prof Tukur Muhammad Baba, said: “I think it’s not a question for the North. It is a national question. It is to be noted that such a stance is not a constitutional provision for which no political office holder will be held accountable for in this regard.

“In the past, others had made similar promises without effect. A presidential candidate, who is late, made a similar promise when campaigning for office, and we know what happened or rather what did not happen.

“At any rate, in the event that Peter Obi wins the presidency and goes on to perform well, will the nation be forced not to elect him for a second allowable term in office?”

“In this regard, Mr. Obi’s promise sounds crass and unnecessary. Few will believe or take it serious. For him, such a pledge defies logic and is unnecessary.”

Trust

For his part, a former Secretary General of the ACF, Anthony Sani, said: “I would say the political arithmetic is simple. Peter Obi’s pledge to do only one term of four years from 2027 to 2031 is informed more by his desire to seek accommodation by the politics of zoning which makes it mandatory for the presidency to leave the South in 2031 to the North.

“President Bola Tinubu is the only southerner who has only one term of four years (2027-2031) to go. Other aspirants are constitutionally allowed to do maximum of two terms of four years each.

“Naturally, northerners would prefer President Bola Tinubu to Peter Obi due to the term limits for the two of them: Bola Tinubu has only one term left while Peter Obi can do two terms.

“That is what has compelled Peter Obi to pledge he would do one term from 2027 to 2031. The pledge is not based on performance but informed by expedience.

“And given the nature of politics, which is about group goals, group interest, group cohesion, group coherence and even group conspiracy, the decision to re-contest after one term would not be taken by Peter Obi alone. His group will have a say. “As a result, northerners may not trust President Peter Obi will leave office after one term.”

Desperation

Also speaking, Speaker of Arewa Youth Assembly, Salihu Muhammad Danlami, said: “Northern Nigeria cannot accept Peter Obi’s one-term promise. This is pure desperation to get power.

“We cannot forget in a hurry how Peter Obi turned the 2023 presidential election into a religious and ethnic affair. “Northerners cannot fall on such a cheap promise from someone like Peter Obi. “Even Goodluck Jonathan made such a promise during 2011, but still went on to contest in 2015.

“Power must come back to Northern Nigeria after the South has spent eight years in power. We have two southerners who have one more term to rule: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and former President Goodluck Jonathan. Let’s vote wisely.”

To the National President of the Northern Youth Council of Nigeria, Isah Abubakar, Peter Obi’s pledge to serve only a single term if elected president should be viewed with scepticism.

Abubakar argued that this promise is a political tactic designed to win support from Northern voters in the 2027 general elections, and therefore, should not be taken seriously.

He pointed to the precedent set by former President Muhammadu Buhari, who also promised a single term in 2015 but ultimately ran for re-election.

Abubakar contended that if a widely trusted leader like Buhari did not honour a similar pledge, it’s unlikely that Obi would either.

Resistance

He suggested that a new Southern candidate would face significant resistance from the North in 2027, given that Tinubu is already a Southern leader nearing the end of his first term.

According to him, it would be in the North’s best interest to back Tinubu for a second term rather than support a new candidate who may not adhere to their four-year term limit.

As an alternative, Abubakar proposed that if the South seeks a change in leadership, they could present Jonathan as a candidate, who is eligible to serve only a single four-year term.

This, he believed, would allow the South to complete its eight-year presidential tenure without exceeding it, preventing a potential twelve-year run of Southern leadership.

Abubakar further asserted that while Obi himself may be trustworthy, the decision to run for a second term would ultimately be controlled by political power brokers and not by Obi alone, making it improbable for him to uphold his promise.

Trust deficit

The National Coordinator of the Coalition of Northern Groups (CNG), Jamilu Charanchi, told Sunday Vanguard that there is already trust deficit in the political process.

He said: “Nigeria’s political landscape continues to suffer from a chronic trust deficit, driven by a long-standing culture of empty promises and post-election betrayal.

“Politicians, regardless of party affiliation, have mastered the art of pledging radical change during campaigns, only to abandon those commitments once they assume office.

“President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s unfulfilled vow to provide stable electricity, coupled with premature whispers of a second-term ambition, exemplifies this troubling pattern. “Equally, Peter Obi’s one-term pledge, though appealing to reform-minded voters, still fits into the familiar script of high-sounding declarations with little clarity on implementation or accountability.

“Nigerians, now more politically aware than ever, are beginning to demand more than rhetoric.

“The electorate is growing tired of theatrical politics and is calling for verifiable action and measurable results. “As 2027 approaches, particularly in the North, voters must shift from emotional allegiance to strategic political judgment where performance, not personality, becomes the currency of support.

“It is only by insisting on delivery over dialogue, and substance over slogans, that the nation can reclaim its democratic integrity and chart a path toward meaningful governance.

“In the next election cycle, trust must no longer be handed out on the basis of eloquence. It must be earned through results.”

Duration

Lending his voice to the debate, Elder Sunday Oibe of Northern CAN, said: “Honestly, it’s not the duration and length or otherwise of how long one stays in the office but rather, the impact created when in office.

“I believe that any person with capacity and clear vision of what he or she wants to achieve is doable within four years.

“It is not the issue of whether the North accepts it or not but rather, what the Nigerian society wants.

“When limiting this discussion to the issue of North, they are not being fair to the rest of Nigerians.

“The Nigeria project is more than a sectional focus. The question of whether Obi can be trusted is misplaced because, has he done anything that shows he can’t be trusted before now? “All those that have been given opportunity to lead before Peter Obi, what has been their pedigree? Why were they trusted with power? If they can be trusted with power, why not Peter Obi with his success stories both in private and public life?

“Unless we learn to respect and trust others, Nigeria will remain stagnant. I don’t think that the promise is for the purposes of getting the votes from the North.

“Nigeria should by now realize that Peter is only offering himself like others to contribute to bringing Nigeria out of the wood.

“He doesn’t seem desperate to me. Let’s judge all those seeking to lead by their public utterances and body language and it will be obvious that Mr Peter Obi seems to be honest with Nigerians thus far.”

Core North

In Kano, gubernatorial candidate of Peoples Redemption Party, PRP, Salihu Tanko Yakasai, told Sunday Vanguard that Obi can’t be trusted on his promise to serve for only one term.

He described the pledge as gimmicks that cannot sway voters, especially those from the core North.

Yakasai said: “Yes, I’ve also heard Obi’s promise of one term, I believe he has said it multiple times now, and to be honest and frank, I doubt if this will sway voters, especially those that aren’t his supporters, particularly those from the core North.

“We all know politicians and their promises. Before election they promise you heaven, after election, they’ll shamelessly backtrack on it with zero remorse.

“For example, there is a video of President Tinubu saying if he doesn’t give Nigerians 24 hours electricity, we should not vote for him for second term. “It’s two years, we don’t have 24 hours electricity. We won’t have it before 2027. “But here he is campaigning to be re-elected already.

“Because of this nature of our politicians, I doubt Nigerians, especially the Northern part, will take this promise by Peter Obi seriously.”

Kebbi State Coordinator of Coalition of Northern Groups, Comrade Munsur Guzura, described the single tenure statement as a mere political statement.

He said politicians, including Obi, make pledges they can never keep just to win the mercy of gullible electorate.

According to him, the North is interested in ADC and is ready to vote the party if Atiku will fly the presidential flag of the party.

He said, therefore, the only way out for Obi in the North is to be the running mate of Atiku.

His words: “The North is plagued by insecurity, hunger and poverty, and the current Southern President is not doing anything about them.

“We can’t trust any candidate from the South-East or West because we believe only a northerner who knows our problem can fix our problems. It is not Obi or any other person.

“If Obi wins and finishes his first tenure, will he hand over to another southerner or northerner? If Obi goes solo without a northerner, he won’t win in the North.”

Zoning

Nigeria operates an unconstitutional power-sharing arrangement, which is often referred to as zoning between the North and South.

Under this understanding, the presidency is expected to alternate between the two regions after every eight years.

The incumbent, Tinubu, is from the South and is currently serving his first term, which will end in 2031 if he is re-elected.

Already, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has seized on Obi’s one-term pledge as a political weapon, portraying it as evidence of uncertainty and lack of long-term commitment.

Party strategists have begun deploying the remark in public discourse and campaign narratives to undermine Obi’s credibility ahead of 2027.

Despite such attacks, Obi’s 2023 presidential performance shows that his influence cuts across regional lines.

He won in key Northern states such as Nasarawa, Plateau, and the Federal Capital Territory, while also sweeping strategic Southern states including Lagos, Delta, Edo, Enugu, and Anambra.

Analysts believe this cross-regional appeal could make him a formidable contender again, regardless of the controversies surrounding his promise.

National President of Arewa Youths Consultative Forum, AYCF, Yerima Shettima, said: “This commitment raises several questions, particularly regarding its acceptability to the Northern electorate, the trustworthiness of Obi’s intentions, and whether this pledge was merely a strategic maneuver to garner votes from the North.“The Northern region of Nigeria has historically wielded significant political power, often dictating the terms of presidential elections through its substantial voter base.

The promise of a one-term presidency by Peter Obi could be seen as a double-edged sword. On one hand, it may resonate with some Northern voters who are weary of the political status quo and the cyclical nature of leadership that often leads to regional marginalization. A one-term commitment could be interpreted as a step towards fostering inclusivity and addressing the concerns of various ethnic groups, including the North.“However, the acceptability of this promise is contingent on the broader context of Nigeria’s politics.

The North has often been wary of candidates from other regions, particularly the South, fearing that their interests will be sidelined. Obi’s promise might not be enough to assuage these fears, especially considering the historical grievances between the North and South. For many Northern voters, the assurance of a single term may not outweigh the apprehensions regarding the potential for a Southern president to prioritize Southern interests over national unity.

“Trust is a vital currency in politics, and Obi’s promise of a one-term presidency raises questions about his sincerity and the feasibility of such a commitment. Critics may argue that political promises are often made during campaigns with little intention of being fulfilled.

The political landscape is fraught with unpredictability, and circumstances can change rapidly once a candidate assumes office. Obi’s ability to maintain this commitment would depend on a myriad of factors, including the political climate, party pressures, and the expectations of his constituents.“The timing and context of Obi’s one-term promise suggest that it may have been strategically crafted to appeal to Northern voters.

In a political environment where regional sentiments are heightened, candidates often tailor their messages to resonate with specific demographics. By offering a one-term presidency, Obi may have aimed to alleviate fears among Northern voters about the long-term implications of a Southern presidency, thereby making his candidacy more palatable.”

Vanguard News Nigeria

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