Obi’s so-called regional myth’ll be broken in 2027 poll – Lagos APC

…demystifies 2023 popularity

By Olasunkanmi Akoni

The Lagos State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has declared that what it described as Peter Obi’s “so-called” regional dominance in the 2023 presidential election is already waning and will be decisively broken in the 2027 general elections.

Mr. Obi was the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the last general election.

The position of the party was contained in a statement issued on Friday by the Lagos APC spokesman, Mr. Seye Oladejo, following what the party said was its interrogation of an independent, data-driven report referenced by TheCable on December 20, 2025.

According to the statement, the report provides a “sobering, factual explanation” for what it described as the paradox of Obi’s overwhelming performance in parts of the South-East and his poor showing across other regions of the country.

“This is not political conjecture. It is mathematics, statistics, and electoral geography speaking plainly,” the statement said.

The APC said the study showed that Anambra State recorded an anomaly rate of 24.9 per cent, meaning that nearly one in four polling units exhibited multiple fraud indicators. Enugu State, it added, recorded 16.7 per cent, while Imo State had 10.9 per cent.

According to the party, the three states accounted for a disproportionate share of the 4,351 anomalous polling units identified nationwide, out of the 123,918 polling units analysed.

By contrast, the statement noted that Lagos State recorded an anomaly rate of 2.3 per cent, while Oyo State recorded what it described as an almost negligible rate of 0.3 per cent.

“In an election decided by margins running into hundreds of thousands of votes, such clusters of ‘perfect scores,’ suspiciously round percentages and statistically improbable vote distributions are not trivial. They are electorally consequential,” the APC said.

The party argued that these figures explained why Obi appeared electorally dominant in parts of the South-East, while recording weak performances in the North, South-West, South-South and large parts of the Middle Belt, where it said competitive political environments made manipulation more difficult.

While acknowledging that Obi enjoyed genuine popularity in the South-East, the Lagos APC said the report exposed what it called an “inconvenient truth” that hegemonic popularity often creates conditions where electoral manipulation can thrive.

The statement also stressed that Obi secured only 29.1 per cent of the total votes cast nationwide and finished third behind the APC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

“Outside the South-East, his performance was not merely weak; it was catastrophic for anyone presented as a serious national alternative,” it said.

On allegations of rigging, the party reiterated that electoral malpractice in Nigeria is systemic and not limited to any political party, adding that no party, including the Labour Party, could claim moral exceptionalism.

Looking ahead to 2027, the Lagos APC said ongoing political realignments, off-season election outcomes and shifting alliances indicate that Obi’s regional influence is already thinning.

“The so-called Peter Obi regional myth is already eroding and will be decisively broken in the 2027 general elections,” the statement said, adding that elections are ultimately won by structure, spread, performance and consistency, not by symbolism or grievance narratives.

In its final remarks, the party said the report did not delegitimise Nigeria’s democracy or invalidate the 2023 election, but rather restored honesty to public debate.

“Peter Obi was not defeated by conspiracy. He was defeated by electoral arithmetic, national spread requirements, competitive politics, and his failure to translate regional enthusiasm into national acceptability,” the APC said.

The party also called for further independent audits, stronger technological safeguards and the prosecution of electoral offenders across all parties, stressing that democracy is best served by facts rather than myths.

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