Nigeria’s telecom reforms may boost sector’s GDP contribution to $25bn

Ongoing reforms at the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) may position the telecommunications sector to contribute up to $25 billion annually to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), based on projections tied to recent policy changes and market trends.

Since the appointment of Dr. Aminu Maida as Executive Vice Chairman in October 2023, the Commission has initiated a number of regulatory changes aimed at improving efficiency, investor confidence, and operational transparency across the sector.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the ICT sector contributed 17.68% to Nigeria’s GDP in Q4 2024, with telecommunications accounting for 14.4%—a significant share compared to other major sectors.

Telecom sector revenues reached $7.6 billion in 2024, with forecasts suggesting an 8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2028. Sustained growth could potentially drive the sector’s GDP contribution beyond the $25 billion mark, supported by increasing broadband penetration, digital transactions, and adoption of technology across sectors.

“The sector’s performance in 2024 has been impressive,” said Gbenga Adebayo, Chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON). “The regulatory direction of the NCC and policy support from relevant government agencies have been instrumental.”

The Commission’s reform efforts are part of broader national strategies under the Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy. One of the major initiatives is the ongoing review of the Nigerian Communications Act (NCA) 2003, which aims to update regulatory frameworks and address challenges such as Right of Way (RoW) costs, infrastructure security, and digital access gaps.

Despite economic headwinds, the telecom sector has shown resilience, recording double-digit growth in recent years—16.36% in 2024 and 14.13% in 2023—while national GDP growth remained between 0.51% and 5.01% during the same period.

Nigeria’s telecom industry has expanded significantly since 2001, growing from under 300,000 mobile lines to over 169 million active lines as of 2025. This growth has contributed to improvements in digital financial services, with mobile money and USSD platforms playing a role in increasing financial inclusion—from 56% in 2020 to 64% in 2023, according to financial sector data.

The industry is also a key employer, contributing an estimated 2.3 million direct and indirect jobs. Broadband penetration reached 48.15% as of May 2025, facilitating greater access to e-health, digital education, agriculture technologies, and government services.

In addition, the “3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT)” program launched in November 2023 under Minister Bosun Tijani aims to build digital competencies among Nigerian youth, further aligning with the country’s digital transformation goals.

Analysts believe that with coherent regulation, modernized laws, and a clear policy direction, Nigeria’s telecom sector is well positioned to become a central pillar of the digital economy—driving inclusive, technology-led national growth.

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