Nigeria’s road in 2026 will be rough, by Ikechukwu Amaechi

Today is January 1, 2026 and if you are reading this, it means only one thing: you are alive, one of those who survived 2025, a year that turned out, to borrow late Queen Elizabeth II’s Latin phrase, an “annus horribilis” (horrible year). Last year was dreadful for many Nigerians – a year of significant personal and public turmoil.

It was a year of extreme violence. Terrorists of all hues descended on hapless Nigerians in their homes, children and their teachers in schools, farmers at the farms, traders at their places of business, travellers on dilapidated roads, the faithful in churches, mosques and other sanctuaries of worship, and soldiers at the barracks with reckless abandon, unleashing bloodcurdling terror. The horrific violence started quite early in the year. On January 13, Boko Haram and its vicious offshoot, ISWAP, descended upon unsuspecting farmers in a remote Borno village, slaughtering 40. Even wild animals kill for food, not fun unlike these deranged monsters. On January 28, a suicide bomber infiltrated the Malam Fatori barracks in Borno, and mowed down soldiers. The violent attacks got worse as the year progressed. In July 2025, the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) disclosed that more Nigerians – at least 2,266 – were senselessly killed by terrorists in the first half of the year compared to 1,083 in the first half of 2024 and 2,194 for the full year.

Mr. Tony Ojukwu, NHRC Executive Secretary, who made the disclosure lamented that: “These were not mere figures on a report; they were fathers, mothers, children, and breadwinners; families torn apart, livelihoods destroyed, and futures extinguished in moments of senseless brutality.” He couldn’t have put it any better. Yet, despite his lamentation, the worse was still to come. In just four days, between November 17 and 21, more than 320 students and teachers were kidnapped from two schools in Kebbi and Niger states, reminiscent of the 2014 Chibok girls’ abduction horror. In panic, a government that has been living in denial shut down 47 Unity Schools nationwide, with dozens more shut by state governments. The same month, ISWAP terrorists brutally murdered Musa Uba, a Brigadier-General and brigade commander in Damboa, Borno State.

But before these major escalations, United States President Donald Trump had, on October 30, designated Nigeria “a country of particular concern” for allegedly failing to rein in the persecution and slaughtering of Christians by radical Islamists with his “Christianity is facing an existential threat in Nigeria” and “radical Islamists are responsible for this mass slaughter” statement. Then, following President Bola Tinubu’s pushback a day after with a social media statement, which claimed that the characterisation of Nigeria as a religiously intolerant country does not reflect the national reality because “Nigeria opposes religious persecution and does not encourage it,” Trump threatened military action against the radical Islamists.

“If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, ‘guns-a-blazing,’ to completely wipe out the Islamic terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities,” he posted on social media, adding: “I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians!”

On Christmas day, he unilaterally fulfilled the threat by giving the terror kingpins a deadly “Christmas present” in their Sokoto safe haven, with a highly embarrassed Tinubu scrambling for an alibi by claiming foreknowledge of the strike.   So, it was not for nothing that the Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund (GCERF) ranked Nigeria on the Global Terrorism Index in 2025 as the sixth most terrorised country globally, jumping two points from its previous ranking. Yet, despite all these, happy New Year is in order for any Nigerian lucky enough to survive 2025, a year politics utterly trumped governance. Rather than making good governance and promotion of common good articles of faith, Tinubu prioritised asinine politics. The only thing that mattered to him is his deadly 2027 political manoeuvrings with an overarching political philosophy – buy everyone who could be bought, silence others. Sadly, even when so much noise is being made about the country’s giant strides on the democracy boulevard, the people in whom sovereignty resides are not factored into any of these calculations.

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has done everything since 2015 to degrade democracy by viciously violating its core principle of popular sovereignty. The very idea of democracy is that ultimate governing power rests with the people, who exercise it directly or through elected representatives, granting legitimacy to the government and holding leaders accountable through free and fair elections. Tinubu’s political values encapsulated in his power not served a la carte philosophy is the very antithesis of this ennobling principle. For him, anyone seeking public office must “do it at all costs; fight for it, grab it, snatch it and run (away) with it.” That is the reason for the heightened toxic political environment. 2025 was a bad year metaphorically and in reality. It will even get worse in 2026, the eve of the 2027 elections. So, despite the happy New Year wishes, which, no doubt, will be on the lips of almost every Nigerian today, 2026 will be another challenging year.

A government that has perfected the act of using poverty to whip its citizens into line will exacerbate the already excruciating hardship in the land. The new tax law, whether the version passed by the National Assembly or the one forged by the Tinubu government and gazetted, will ensure just that. If there was any iota of governance in 2025, there will be none in 2026. In an attempt to stifle the opposition of funds, the government will mop up all funds in the system. Public funds will become private funds. Accountability will be zero. In a real democracy, the people are treated like kings on the eve of elections. Even insensitive governments become alive to their responsibilities to the people. The reverse is the case here. The government will deliberately pauperise the people, so much so that anyone privileged to have access to the crumbs from the tables of the political dinosaurs will feel special and grateful.

The deliberate and systematic destabilisation of the opposition political parties, an assignment which Nyesom Wike, Federal Capital Territory Minister, is doing very well, will continue apace. With the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) effectively crippled, and without any prospects of recovery before the elections, the attention of the government will now intensely focus on the African Democratic Congress (ADC) particularly with the formal declaration of Mr Peter Obi, the enfant terrible of the country’s contemporary politics on Wednesday that he would henceforth pitch his political tent with the ADC.

Even before he did, Tinubu’s political appointees have started throwing the kitchen sink at him. It will only get worse in the coming days and months no matter what he decides to do next. So, why the traditional happy New Year greeting is in order, I dare say it will be a difficult year despite all pretensions to the contrary and projections of massive GDP growth. But at the same time, it is also a year that offers some hope to longsuffering Nigerians if only they take the country’s destiny in their own hands by challenging the political status quo that lays no stock in their welfare. It won’t be easy. But nothing good comes easy.

In his January 1, 1964 ‘May Your Road Be Rough’ new year message, Tai Solarin noted: “I found, by hard experience, that all that is noble and laudable was to be achieved only through difficulties and trials and tears and dangers. There are no other roads.” I agree! And therein lies the redemptive opportunities this year offers Nigeria and Nigerians.         

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