Nigeria’s manufacturing, trade sectors boom as business confidence rises in October

…Current business performance index climbs to 111.3 points

By Progress Godfrey, Abuja

Nigeria’s manufacturing and trade sectors recorded strong growth in October 2025, reflecting a surge in business sentiment and activity across major industries.

This is according to the latest National Economic Summit Group (NESG)–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM), a survey-based report that captures business managers’ assessments of current economic performance and short-term expectations across key indicators such as investment, prices, demand, and employment.

Released on Tuesday, the BCM showed that business sentiment strengthened across the Manufacturing, Trade, Non-Manufacturing, Services, and Agriculture sectors, supported by improved activity and renewed confidence among firms.

According to the report, “Nigeria’s business environment in October 2025 showed a moderate yet notable improvement compared to September 2025 and the same period in 2024.”

Business Performance Index Surges

The Current Business Performance Index rose to 111.3 points in October, up by 3.4 points from 107.9 recorded in September 2025.

A year-on-year comparison shows an even sharper rise: the index stood at 76.8 points in October 2024, marking a 34.5-point increase by October 2025.

Despite the improved sentiment, businesses continued to grapple with several structural constraints. NESG identified key challenges including limited access to finance, high rental costs, policy uncertainty, poor electricity supply, and insecurity.

Future Expectations Remain Positive

The Future Business Expectation Index dipped slightly to 132.9 points in October, from 134.5 in September 2025. However, it remains significantly higher than the 98.0 points recorded in October 2024, indicating continued optimism among firms.

The upbeat outlook reflects expectations of improved business conditions, stronger cash flow, increased production, higher demand, and better supply orders.

All five broad economic sectors remained in expansion territory in October:

Manufacturing

The Manufacturing Business Performance Index climbed to 111.3 points from 102.5 in September — an 8.8-point jump.

The improvement was driven by rebounds in key sub-sectors such as Food, Beverage, Tobacco, and Cement.

Businesses attributed the boost to relatively stable power, improved financing conditions, modest foreign exchange stability, and better navigation of regulatory uncertainty.

Trade

The Trade Business Performance Index rose to 115.4 points in October from 107.6 in September, reflecting a 7.8-point increase.

The sector benefited from improved national economic conditions and a steadier exchange rate.

However, insecurity in key markets, supply chain disruptions, and persistent structural weaknesses continue to limit its full potential.

Agriculture

The agricultural sector recorded 111.4 points in October, a 4.1-point rise from 107.3 in September.

Services

The Services Business Performance Index increased to 111.0 points from 108.5, representing a 2.5-point expansion.

Non-Manufacturing

The Non-Manufacturing Index inched up to 115.0 points in October, from 114.5 points recorded the previous month.

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