Nigeria’s inflation rate rise to 15.38% after 11 months decline

•As CPPE cautions against monetary policy tightening

By Yinka Kolawole & Elizabeth Adegbesan

The National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, yesterday, said the country’s headline inflation rate recorded the first increase in 12 months to 15.38 percent in March 2026 from 15.06 percent in February 2026.

This indicates a halt in the downward trend recorded in the past eleven months.

The bureau disclosed this in its Consumer Price Index Report for March 2026.

NBS said: “In March 2026, the Headline inflation rate rose to 15.38 percent, up from 15.06 percent in February 2026 and stood 27.35 percent in the same month of the preceding year (March 2025).  

“Looking at the movement, the March 2026 Headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.32 percent compared to the February 2026 Headline inflation rate.”

The report also showed a 2.17 percentage point increase in month-on-month (MoM) inflation to 4.18 percent in March 2026 from 2.01 percent in February 2026.

NBS explained that this means the rate of increase in the average price level in March 2026 was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in February 2026.”

The bureau noted that both rural and urban inflation went up during the review period.

“The food inflation rate in March 2026 was 14.31 percent on a year-on-year basis and stood at 25.22 percent in the same month of the preceding year (March 2025).

“However, on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.17 percent, down 0.52 percentage points from 4.69 per cent in February 2026.”

Reacting to the uptick in inflation, Chief Executive Officer of Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, said it is largely reflective of renewed energy price pressures, which continue to permeate production, transportation and distribution costs across the economy.

He noted that energy remains a critical cost driver in Nigeria, given the persistent reliance on gas, diesel and petrol for power generation, logistics and industrial operations, adding that rising energy costs are quickly transmitted into: Higher transportation costs; Increased food prices; and Escalating production and distribution expenses.

“This cost-push dynamic explains the sharp increase in month-on-month inflation and signals that the underlying inflationary pressures are far from subdued,” he stated.

Yusuf cautioned against monetary policy tightening, reiterating that the current inflationary pressures are predominantly cost-push in nature, driven by energy, logistics and structural inefficiencies – not excess demand.

“In this context, further monetary tightening would be ineffective in addressing the root causes of inflation; high interest rates would hurt economic growth, investment and productivity, and the real sector would face increased financing constraints, undermining recovery efforts,” he said.

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