NBS adjusts CPI method, explains projected December inflation spike

By Progress Godfrey

ABUJA — The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has adjusted its Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology to clarify a projected spike in Nigeria’s December 2025 inflation figure, stressing that the increase is technical and not indicative of worsening economic conditions.

Speaking during a virtual Stakeholder Engagement on the December 2025 CPI/Inflation, Statistician General of the Federation and NBS CEO, Adeyemi Adeniran, explained that the projected spike results from the recent CPI rebasing, which adopted 2024 as the new base year after 15 years from the previous 2009 base.

“The spike arises from the base effect following the rebasing,” Adeniran said. “Base effects are common in statistical practice and are arithmetic rather than reflective of structural economic changes. It is essential to communicate and explain them clearly to users.”

The CPI rebasing in January 2025 introduced more than 400 new products and removed over 200 from the inflation basket to reflect changes in consumption patterns, creating challenges in linking old and new data series.

Dr. Ayo Anthony, NBS Director of Price Statistics, explained that the use of December 2024 as the index reference month could have exaggerated year-on-year inflation, projecting a figure of 31.2 percent, which does not reflect Nigeria’s true economic conditions.

“To address this, we have maximised the index reference period to 12 months rather than a single month,” he said. “This smooths the base effect and ensures the CPI reflects actual price movements in the economy.”

Adeniran noted that the Bureau acted proactively in consultation with the IMF, World Bank, and Central Bank of Nigeria to ensure that the technical adjustment does not mislead policymakers or the public.

Dr. Tayo Aduloju, CEO of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), highlighted the importance of credible inflation data, especially as Nigeria transitions from economic stabilisation to consolidation. He warned that misinterpreting technical spikes could lead to costly policy mistakes and undermine macroeconomic gains.

“As the economy shifts from stabilisation to consolidation reforms, the role of official statistics—particularly the CPI—is crucial,” Aduloju said.

The NBS assured stakeholders that the December inflation figure would be presented transparently, with technical adjustments explained, to provide an accurate reflection of Nigeria’s economic fundamentals.

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