Makinde’s 2027 Puzzle: Will PDP’s gamble pay off?

By Luminous Jannamike

THE road to Nigeria’s next presidential election is already being mapped out in quiet conversations, and one name keeps coming up with both interest and doubt: Seyi Makinde, the Governor of Oyo State.

He is seen as a capable leader at the state level, but questions remain about whether his influence can extend across the country.

Can the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), still recovering from three straight defeats at the presidential polls and trying to rebuild after the divisions that followed its 2023 outing, really place its hopes on him?

The Southern Spotlight

With the PDP zoning its presidential ticket to the South, attention has turned to Southern governors who weathered the 2023 storm.

Among them, Seyi Makinde stands out, not only because he still holds a PDP stronghold, but also because he stayed loyal when others shifted to rival camps.

Supporters praise his technocratic style and steadfastness. Critics, however, suggest that his rise could be a calculated move to keep the PDP weak.

A Rebel Turned Contender

Makinde’s story cannot be told without recalling his role in the G5 alliance, the group of governors who defied the PDP leadership in 2022.

His partnership with Nyesom Wike brought him national attention, but their paths later split. Wike, though still a PDP member on paper, has drifted towards the APC, while Makinde has remained firmly in the PDP.

Today, the rift between the two men highlights the party’s internal divisions. Media reports suggest that the APC has been the main beneficiary of their feud, which continues to widen cracks within the PDP.

The Electability Test

For many, the key question is simple: can Makinde take on President Bola Tinubu in 2027? His allies believe he can.
Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, has even said publicly: “What Nigerians need in 2027 is capacity and pedigree, which Seyi Makinde and I have demonstrated at the sub-national level.”

But critics are less convinced. They point out that Makinde’s national profile is still limited, his support outside the South-West is uncertain, and his Northern alliances remain largely untested.

In their view, the PDP risks repeating its 2023 loss to the APC by fielding a challenger who lacks the necessary weight.

Picture, for a moment, the optics of such a contest: a relatively young governor taking on an entrenched national figure. To PDP loyalists, it could signal renewal. To the APC, it might look like a gift, an opponent too easy to neutralise.

The Coy Candidate

Makinde has not openly declared any ambition. Instead, he maintains a cautious posture, often stressing party unity above personal interest.

At the PDP zoning committee’s southern consultative meeting in Lagos two weeks ago, the Oyo Governor was asked about demands made on the party by Wike, who has openly pledged support for Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid.

“Personally, when people go low, or they go into the gutters, I don’t go with them,” Makinde replied. His measured words only added to the speculation.

Some insiders believe that floating his name as a possible presidential contender is less about his own intentions and more about testing the waters or unsettling rivals. In Nigerian politics, appearances can matter just as much as intent.

The Balancing Act

Makinde’s perceived strengths: youth, loyalty, and his governance record; sit alongside notable weaknesses.
A fractured yet recovering PDP, coupled with doubts about his national reach, complicates any path to Aso Rock.

Still, some voices within the party are confident. Lagos PDP’s Adetokunbo Pearse has argued that Makinde stands a strong chance of defeating President Tinubu in 2027.

“I have declared my support for him because, based on his record and character, I believe he would be a great candidate and stands a good chance of defeating Tinubu in 2027. That’s my position. He won’t be the only one running unless others choose to step aside, but I sincerely believe Makinde can take on Tinubu,” Pearse said.

Oyo PDP chieftain Femi Babalola went even further, describing Makinde as the ideal presidential candidate with the qualities needed to lead Nigeria.

According to him, by 2027 Makinde would have served eight years as governor, giving him valuable experience for a head-to-head contest with other strong contenders.

“Governor Makinde has performed creditably well. Yes, there may be some shortcomings, but nobody in the world can score 100 per cent in governance,” he said.

Yet optimism is tempered by reality. For every supporter, there are sceptics who warn that the APC’s incumbency power, coupled with Makinde’s limited national profile, could make him too easy to brush aside on election day in 2027.

Imagine the Contest

Picture the 2027 ballot: Makinde, a relatively young Southern governor, facing Tinubu, the seasoned political titan.
For many Nigerians tired of familiar faces, it could feel like a refreshing change. But to APC strategists, it might look like déjà vu, another divided opposition posing little real threat.

That scenario alone shows why Makinde’s name stirs both excitement and unease.

What Lies Ahead

For now, the PDP remains too fractured, though slowly recovering, to present a coherent plan.

Bala Mohammed has warned that the party must avoid repeating the APC’s ‘mistake’ of a Muslim–Muslim ticket, a subtle call for balance should Makinde emerge as a contender in 2027.

Makinde’s silence only heightens the suspense. Is he simply biding his time? A placeholder for a broader strategy? Or perhaps a carefully chosen decoy in a longer game?

The Curtain Falls

As the 2027 presidential election approaches, one thing is certain: Makinde’s shadow looms larger than his silence.
To some, his name represents hope; to others, weakness or perhaps just strategy. But whatever it signifies, it has already reshaped conversations within the PDP.

Whether he emerges as the party’s standard-bearer, its decoy, or merely a fleeting whisper will depend on decisions yet to come. For now, the story of Makinde is also the story of a party struggling for survival, and of a nation watching as the stage is quietly set.

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