Like water corporations, DISCOs might soon be irrelevant, by Adekunle Adekoya

THE headline of today’s  column summarises my current thoughts about the status of the electricity sector of our economy, which began last week under the headline: Our electricity conundrum and the Power Minister’s apologies. Yes, it can happen. In the near future, electricity distribution companies, called DISCOs may operate themselves into sterling irrelevance as ever-inventive Nigerians continue to devise means of providing for themselves what governments have serially failed to do. Already, every home is a government unto itself — we provide our own water, buy generators for electricity, and in many outliers of our towns and cities, residents associations levy members to generate funds with which they hire caterpillar graders to smoothen roads in their neighbourhood to make them motorable.

Those in doubt of this assertion should take another long, hard look at the provision of water in Nigeria. As things stand today, nobody  thinks of developing a home, however small, without adequate plans for water supply. Without any figures to rely on, I guesstimate that about 90 per cent of homes developed in Nigeria in the last 30 years or more are running on their own water — from wells and boreholes. The failure of state governments to provide potable water, despite the existence of their water corporations, deserves to be properly studied. Water works exist. And from them, huge trunk pipes have been laid to take the water to towns and cities.

But it seems that is where they always ended; along the major roads. Reticulation into the streets has remained a challenge which the citizens ignored and conveniently opted to drill boreholes or dig wells on their premises. The failure of the water corporations led to the emergence of an indigenous, two-part water industry — one part is the borehole drilling industry, while the other is the satchet and bottle water industries. Both have grown to become billion naira industries, and in the case of bottled water, multinationals like Coca Cola, and PepsiCo are big players alongside local giants like Rite Foods, Ragolis, Yankari, SWAN, and others. The “pure water” sub-sector is in a class of its own, populated by small-scale operators in the suburbs of our towns and cities. The failure of water corporations actually led to the creation of the indigenous water industry.

As can be seen, it is beginning to look like the same fate awaits the electricity industry. Without consulting a seer or an oracle, it is clear that the power sector is not about to see anything like growth in the foreseeable future. This is because the Minister of Power thinks it will be an achievement to generate 6,000 mega watts by the end of 2026. With a population already in excess of 200 million, I don’t know what 6,000 mega watts can power, except government is determined not to grow this economy beyond what it is at present, while officials continue to mouth rhetoric that express the opposite. After the President said that a $1 trillion economy is achievable by 2030, many officials, both elected and appointed, have been echoing that statement, as if it is an election that they can rig easily. If we want a trillion-dollar economy, we will have to generate the electricity to create it, and certainly not a pedestrian 6,000 mega watts.

In the suburbs of Lagos, which the people call GRAs (Government Rejected Areas), there looks like what is a surge in the uptake of solar power. Electricians are running to the markets to purchase batteries, inverters and solar panels in their scores. More and more people are going the solar way. A few years ago, some of our fellow country men and women were smiling to the banks from sales of kerosene, which was the dominant domestic fuel. Not anymore. Kerosene sellers have almost disappeared. Not many filling stations even have it. Suddenly, gas became the preferred domestic fuel. The changeover to gas was so total and complete that it seemed as if the masses held meetings where they decided to dump kerosene. Looks like the same thing is beginning to happen with solar power.

As more people do solar, less people will buy electricity for their pre-paid metres. In the areas where estimated billings still run, one day, DISCO officials will arrive to see cables dangling from houses, unconnected. I have it on good authority that a particular Lagos DISCO generates 70% of its revenue from estimated billings. This means the DISCO in question has perfected a business model whose infrastructure is extortion. As more people opt for solar, that revenue source will dry up. When a company loses 70% of its revenue, it will simply suffer asphyxia and die. So, it is quite plausible that the DISCOs might go the way of water corporations — existing but irrelevant. In all of these, we see just one thing clearly and that is failure of governance.

What has made reticulation of water pipes impossible all these years? As it concerns electricity, what is the vision? Indeed, is there a vision? Whose vision? What are the plans to actualise the vision? Who is driving the plan? What are the deliverables of such a plan? Any timelines for the deliverables? I am asking these questions because we need to have a national vision for electricity. I’m just a journalist, but if I join the APC and the President appoints me Minister of Power, I’d get those who know to develop a plan for generating 100,000 mega watts withing four years. Then I’d break my back working to achieve it. Next term, I’d repeat the same thing. At the end of eight years, I’d be able to point at what has been achieved and Nigeria’ll be better off. But if I’m clueless about the power sector challenges and actually have my mind on something else. So Nigeria’ll remain stuck with 6,000 mega watts until further notice. TGIF.

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