Iran ups threats over naval blockade, but still talking to US

Iran’s military threatened on Wednesday to shut down Red Sea trade unless the United States lifted its naval blockade on Tehran’s ports, saying the ceasefire was at risk.

The warning came as a Pakistani delegation arrived in Tehran bearing a new message from Washington after a first attempt at a peace deal fell flat, with President Donald Trump indicating talks could resume this week.

US Vice President JD Vance, who led last weekend’s abortive talks, said the Islamic republic was being offered a “grand bargain” to end the six-week war and address the decades-old dispute over Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Stocks rose and crude dropped as markets eyed chances of a deal to get oil flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz — choked by Iranian forces since the US-Israeli offensive began, and now the focus of the US blockade.

But for now, both sides seemed intent on keeping up the pressure.

“Either this is a big bluff on both sides and we are on the edge of a deal, or the markets are terribly miscalculating and we are about to witness a major economic event as the double blockade… continues on,” said Phillips O’Brien, strategic studies professor at the University of St Andrews.

– ‘Continued engagement’ –

Washington has sought to turn the screws on Tehran with a blockade of its ports, with US Central Command claiming to have “completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea”.

The picture based on recent maritime tracking data in the Strait of Hormuz was less clear-cut, and Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported shipping has continued from southern Iran.

But the head of Iran’s military central command centre warned a US failure to lift the blockade would constitute “a prelude” to violating the two-week ceasefire struck on April 8.

Unless Washington relents, Iran’s armed forces “will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea,” said Ali Abdollahi.

Speaking to the New York Post on Tuesday, Trump said a new round of talks could take place in Pakistan “over the next two days”, while telling Fox Business the war was “very close to being over”.

A senior US official told AFP there was “continued engagement between the US and Iran to reach a deal”, but denied reports Trump’s administration had consented in principle to lengthen the truce.

On the Iranian side, a foreign ministry spokesman said “several messages” had been exchanged via Islamabad since talks wrapped up on Sunday.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi welcomed in Tehran on Wednesday a Pakistani delegation led by army chief Asim Munir that Iranian state television said was to relay a new US message and discuss a second round of talks.

– ‘Grand bargain’ –

Trump has insisted any deal must permanently bar Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. He launched the war on February 28 arguing that Tehran was rushing to complete an atomic bomb, an assertion not backed by the UN nuclear watchdog.

Reports said Washington had sought a 20-year suspension of Iran’s uranium enrichment programme during the Islamabad talks, and that Iran, in turn, proposed suspending its nuclear activity for five years — an offer US officials rejected.

Tehran has always insisted its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes and its foreign ministry said Wednesday that Iran’s right to enrich uranium was “indisputable”, although the level of enrichment was “negotiable”.

The US vice president said Tuesday that Trump had pledged to “make Iran thrive” if it committed to “not having a nuclear weapon”.

“That’s the kind of Trumpian grand bargain that the president has put on the table,” Vance said, adding: “Man, we’re going to keep on negotiating and try to make it happen.”

– Twin track diplomacy –

The latest signals on US-Iran talks came as Israel and Lebanon also agreed to open direct negotiations after their first high-level face-to-face meeting since 1993 took place Tuesday in Washington.

Trump’s administration is pressing hard for an end to the conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, fearing it could jeopardise a broader settlement.

The US State Department said “all sides agreed to launch direct negotiations at a mutually agreed time and venue”.

But the diplomatic push remained fragile with Hezbollah, which is hostile to any talks, firing dozens of rockets at Israel, whose military claimed hits on more than 200 targets linked to the militant group in Lebanon over 24 hours.

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