Insecurity: How climate change is fueling conflict, displacing livelihoods across northern Nigeria

Sitting beside his cattle on the outskirts of Shanono Local Government Area of Kano State, elderly pastoralist Gidado Isyaku says years of searching for grazing land have become increasingly dangerous.

Once, he moved his herd freely across northern Nigeria and into neighbouring Cameroon in search of pasture. Today, he says, bandits, kidnappers and growing suspicion from farming communities have turned what was once a way of life into a struggle for survival.

“Bandits do not spare us either. Our cattle remain with us because it is too dangerous to travel. People now see us as criminals. But if there were enough grass and water, I swear I would never leave my home. I am tired of this constant movement,” he told DAILY POST.

Gidado’s story reflects the growing reality facing thousands of pastoralists across northern Nigeria, where shrinking water sources, advancing desertification and prolonged drought are forcing communities to migrate in search of survival, often bringing them into conflict with others competing for the same scarce resources.

Environmentalists, security experts and researchers say this is one of the clearest examples of how climate change is reshaping Nigeria’s security landscape. While climate change does not directly cause conflict, experts say it acts as a “threat multiplier”, worsening poverty, displacement and competition over scarce natural resources, thereby creating conditions that fuel violence.

Climate as threat multiplier

In an exclusive interview with DAILY POST, environmentalist and climate change expert, Professor Aliyu Baba Nabegu, said climate change has become one of the defining security challenges of the 21st century.

“Climate change largely acts as a ‘threat multiplier,’ compounding existing vulnerabilities rather than providing direct security benefits. The crisis has driven a major shift in Nigeria’s security architecture, incentivising a proactive, nationwide focus on security integration.”

According to him, climate-related threats have encouraged stronger collaboration among governments across Nigeria.

“The cross-border nature of climate threats, such as drought in Northern Nigeria, has forced states across different geopolitical zones to collaborate, leading to the emergence of six geopolitical regional development commissions. The commissions have significantly upgraded their joint early-warning mechanisms and data-sharing.”

He said climate risks have also accelerated investments in renewable energy and climate resilience.

“The vulnerability of centralized, fossil-fuel-dependent grids has accelerated investments in off-grid and renewable energy. Today, virtually all states have established independent power-generating facilities and Ministries of Power and Renewable Energy for long-term energy resilience.”

Professor Nabegu said agriculture has also begun adapting to the changing climate.

“Frequent crop failures and prolonged droughts are catalysing a transition toward climate-smart agriculture and improved water management technologies. These proactive adaptations protect future livelihoods and reduce the risk of conflict between pastoralists and farmers. The use of solar-powered irrigation pumps is a clear example.”

However, he warned that unless governments address the loss of livelihoods, insecurity will continue to grow.

“If the government focuses on addressing the impacts of climate change, the situation will improve. Many pastoralists would not have migrated if Lake Chad had not receded. Thousands of fishermen lost their livelihoods because the water disappeared, while many farmers abandoned cultivation after the rivers and streams they depended on for irrigation dried up. When people lose their means of livelihood, some inevitably turn to criminal activities.”

Climate not only cause

Retired security expert, Major General Gambo Ahmed Mai Adua told DAILY POST he agreed that climate change has become one of the major drivers of insecurity but cautioned against viewing it in isolation.

“Climate change is one of the leading factors behind Nigeria’s insecurity, but it is not the only one. Poverty and instability in neighbouring countries such as Libya and Chad have also played major roles.”

He explained that prolonged drought, desertification and the shrinking of Lake Chad displaced thousands of pastoralists, forcing them to migrate in search of water and grazing land.

“The drying up of rivers and lakes, especially Lake Chad, forced thousands of Fulani herders to move across borders in search of greener pastures for their livestock. That became the foundation of the conflict between herders and farmers, which later escalated into the security crisis we are witnessing Today.”

According to the retired general, the influx of illicit weapons from conflict-ridden neighbouring countries transformed local disputes into deadly conflicts.

“The proliferation of weapons from Libya and other neighbouring countries further aggravated the crisis.”

Mai Adua said insecurity has evolved beyond clashes between farmers and herders.

“The conflict is not only between farmers and herders. There are also violent clashes among herders themselves. Many who lost their livestock turned to cattle rustling because they had no other means of survival.”

He added that some eventually became involved in kidnapping and other organised crimes.

“Some attack fellow herders after losing their own cattle or because they never had any. They engage in cattle rustling and kidnapping. Climate change destroyed the grazing lands and livestock they had depended on for generations, leaving many without livelihoods.”

Communities paying the price

The consequences are being felt far beyond grazing routes.

Some Fulani pastoralists interviewed by DAILY POST in parts of Jigawa and Bauchi states recounted losing relatives, livestock and property to kidnappers while travelling in search of pasture and water.

Their experiences illustrate how climate change is forcing migration, destroying livelihoods and exposing already vulnerable communities to criminal violence.

Research supports experts’ concerns

A study by researchers from the Department of Agricultural Economics and Farm Management, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, titled “Climate Change, Natural Resource Conflicts and Insecurity in Nigeria: Implication for Food Security”, found that rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and advancing desertification have intensified competition over land and water resources.

The researchers concluded that environmental changes have forced many pastoralists to migrate southward in search of grazing land, increasing tensions with farming communities.

The study further found that insecurity arising from farmer-herder conflicts, banditry and kidnappings has displaced thousands of farming households, destroyed farmlands, disrupted agricultural production and worsened food insecurity across Nigeria.

Experts say reducing insecurity will require sustained investments in climate adaptation, sustainable agriculture, water resource management, environmental restoration, poverty reduction, regional cooperation and stronger border security to curb the flow of illicit arms.

For pastoralists like Gidado Isyaku, however, the solution remains simple.

“If there were enough grass and water for our livestock, I swear I would never leave my home. I am tired of this constant movement.”

Insecurity: How climate change is fueling conflict, displacing livelihoods across northern Nigeria