IMPI predicts economic boom as Tinubu’s policy reforms power growth surge
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By Joseph Erunke, Abuja
One of Nigeria’s leading policy think tanks, the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), has projected that 2026 will emerge as a defining year for Nigeria’s economic resurgence, driven by the new policy-focused economic model of the President Bola Tinubu administration.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI said Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by 5.5 per cent in 2026, outperforming forecasts by both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to the group, the Tinubu administration has successfully initiated a paradigm shift away from Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on crude oil revenues toward a policy-driven economic facilitation framework.
“We made it clear that the Nigerian economy under the current administration has transitioned from perennial oil dependency to deliberate policy-led economic facilitation,” IMPI stated.
The think tank explained that the new model relies on targeted government policies, regulatory reforms and strengthened institutions to remove bottlenecks, cut transaction costs and accelerate economic activities,particularly in trade and investment.
“This approach is designed to foster sustainable and inclusive growth by improving efficiency and significantly reducing red tape,” the statement added.
IMPI also noted what it described as a dramatic turnaround in the IMF’s position on Nigeria’s economic outlook. Seven months after issuing what the group called a questionable projection, the IMF has now revised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast upward to 4.4 per cent.
“This is the highest GDP growth projection by the IMF for Nigeria in the last 17 years and a clear expression of renewed confidence in the Nigerian economy,” IMPI said.
Beyond the IMF’s revised outlook, the policy group pointed to a growing consensus among local and international economic commentators that Nigeria is on track for strong growth in 2026.
While the Federal Government has projected 4.68 per cent growth, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry ,LCCI has forecast an ambitious 7 per cent, surpassing the Nigeria Economic Summit Group’s projection of 5.5 per cent.
Global consultancy PwC maintained a more conservative stance with a 4.3 per cent projection, contingent on higher oil prices, while the World Bank revised its earlier estimate from 3.7 per cent to 4.4 per cent.
According to IMPI, the convergence of these optimistic forecasts reflects an emerging economic paradigm anchored on increased production and productivity, foreign exchange stability, easing inflation, stronger foreign direct investment inflows, and a less intrusive regulatory environment.
“The aggregation of these positive outlooks by domestic and global institutions signals that Nigeria’s economy is entering a new growth phase, firmly rooted in policy-driven economic facilitation,” the group concluded.
IMPI said the indicators suggest that 2026 could be a watershed year in Nigeria’s economic transformation under the Tinubu administration.
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