Can Atiku be trusted as President? By Emmanuel Aziken

The death ofPresident Muhammadu Buhari penultimate Sunday has unarguably upended politicalpermutations over the 2027 political succession, putting Atiku Abubakar in anunprecedentedly favoured position.

Though Buhariwas not expected to be on the ballot, his image was largely expected to weighseriously on the options open to his followers. The myth of the 12 millionvotes around Buhari had, however, been substantially eroded with the deliveryof just five million of such votes to Tinubu in 2023.

Even more,questions over the Buhari political persona had also arisen upon continuing examinationof his not so palatable credentials as a civilian president.

Irrespectiveof Buhari’s diminished political clout at the point of his death, Buhari wasstill expected to weigh significantly for the ruling All Progressives Congress,APC, in the North. His help was very much needed, given the equally appallingcredentials of his successor, President Bola Tinubu, so far in governance.

It is in theface of that void that Nigeria’s most persistent presidential marathoner, AtikuAbubakar, is now expected to draw from. Indeed, since he commenced his quest in 1993,Atiku has perhaps faced no brighter prospects as he does in 2027. The incumbentwho came to power with just about 38% of the votes two years ago is bogged downby about the most challenging economic indices that have made even some of his politicalchoristers to have a rethink.

Even theNollywood community, which backed Tinubu on account of his historic support for theshowbiz community, has seen several recants.

However,Atiku’s prospects are challenged by some formidable challenges, the first of which is the lethargy among many Nigerians over his long presidential marathon.

What doesAtiku want? Though this correspondent from close quarters has observed Atiku tobe about the best prepared presidential candidate in recent Nigerian history,many are suggesting that he should rather step aside and play the role of agodfather.

As early as2002, Atiku had through a private NGO, the National Democratic Project, NDP, steered by Dr Usman Bugaje, compiled a blueprint on the Nigerian question. That blueprintpertained to various issues concerning Nigeria. Remarkably, the NDP was housedin a building on Samora Machel Street, Asokoro, Abuja, nearly opposite theresidence of the famed but deceased PDP leader, Chief Anthony Anenih.

According toone source, Anenih had, one night, while President Olusegun Obasanjo was still inpower, taken the president to the NDP office, suggesting that it was Atiku’scampaign office for the 2003 election.

Whatever,Atiku’s marathon through several presidential runs has so far yielded nothing. Theattempt in 2023, which was another good opportunity, was destroyed by theemergence of Peter Obi and the Obidient Movement.

Ahead of the2027 election, political strategists across the country are weighing the chancesof two of the most viable presidential candidates who can damage Tinubu.

While Obi isobviously about the most popular with a likeability coefficient far above Atikuand other oppositionists across the country, the problem with Obi is hisability to protect his votes. Just like 2023, his rivals, it is feared, could rideroughshod over him even in his Southeast and South-South base.

The Edo StateAPC chairman, Jarret Tenebe, and the state commissioner for information, made a FreudianSlip at the beginning of this week when they justified the restriction on Obi’smovement when they claimed at various occasions that he was too popular in thestate and causing stampedes during his visits.

However,just as in 2023, Obi’s capacity to protect his votes is arguable. It is a factthat is causing many within his inner circle to contemplate him running asvice-presidential candidate to Atiku in 2027.

Atiku it isclaimed, is in pole position among the Northern political elites to tap into whatis left of the Buhari machine. Should Atiku run with Obi and the mass of theNorth vote for him, he, unlike Obi has the potential of protecting his votes againstwhatever infringements may be committed by rival political parties. it is anassumption that is making many around Obi reconsider in their frenzieddesperation to stop a second term for President Tinubu.

The Atikucamp in this direction is believed to have long offered Obi thathe, Atiku, would serve one term during which they would push for a constitutionalamendment to provide for a single five-year term.

His proposalis different from Obi’s offer of serving a single four-year term under existingconstitutional provisions.

While somestrategic players around Obi are said to be inclining towards Atiku, the massof the Obidient family is forswearing such a proposal. Obi or nothing is their chant.

Obi himselfis said to be confused, a situation that is now propping up other possible Southernoptions like Rotimi Amaechi for the Atiku camp.

But why shouldAtiku not sit it out and crown Obi or someone else as president? According to somestrategists, the Northern electorate will not die for a Southern candidate ifhis votes are taken away from him. They recall the case of MKO Abiola who, even though he won in the North, was abandoned during the struggle.

So, with theoption of Atiku increasingly becoming probable as a viable candidate, the questionis, can this presidential marathoner be trusted on his words for one term?

It is aquestion that worries many who have scrutinised the Atiku persona. They pointto the sense of entitlement that Atiku carries. Atiku has, in the last few years, been withdrawing more and more into a Northern, if not Fulani, agenda againsthis once-famed nationalistic tendencies.

With Ibo andYoruba wives, many from across the country were able to feel comfortable aroundAtiku. But as one strategist told your correspondent earlier this week, as aman grows older, he begins to incline more to his home. That is the fear. That is, should the opposition coalesce around Atiku to tackle the APC, will powerever return to the South if they succeed? Can Atiku be trusted on his word?

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