2027: Second case threatens to ‘kill’ ADC

•Inside opposition party’s race for survival

By Luminous Jannamike

At first glance, it looks like another political fight. Then you step inside the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre Abuja, and the air tells a different story. The hall is packed; not just full, but crowded, alive, shifting.

Supporters stand shoulder to shoulder. Aides move quickly between clusters. Conversations overlap, rise, break, and start again. Every few minutes, another prominent opposition figure walks in, and the energy lifts once more.

Across the room, familiar faces draw attention without trying: Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rauf Aregbesola, Rotimi Amaechi, Liyel Imoke, Dino Melaye, Solomon Dalung, Victor Umeh and others. They are not just attending; their presence is a signal.

At the centre of it all is Aisha Yesufu, a frontline activist serving as Deputy Chairman of the committee overseeing Membership, Revalidation, Mobilisation and Registration within the African Democratic Congress, ADC.

Dressed in her trademark blue-grey hijab, which frames her face with quiet elegance, she stands composed, her posture firm, her gaze steady. She does not raise her voice to command the room; the room adjusts to her.

“We are not intimidated. We are not afraid. We are not thinking of giving up,” she says. Then she adds, more quietly but with weight: “Nigeria is at war. Going into 2027, Nigeria is at war, and we are fighting for our lives and the soul of this nation.”

It sounds heavy. But when you begin to follow the threads, it sharpens into something simpler, more unsettling: a political party is trying to run an election while fighting for its own existence.

Because what is happening around the ADC is not one problem. It is many problems, all unfolding at the same time, each one tightening the other.

A fight for control. A court order freezing movement. A regulator stepping away. A case that could end the party itself. And a clock that will not slow down. Everything is happening at once.

The Hard Facts: What We Know, and What Is At Stake

This crisis didn’t start today. It began as a legal challenge. On September 2, 2025, a suit was filed at the Federal High Court questioning the legitimacy of the current leadership of the ADC. 

The claimant, Nafiu Bala Gombe, is asking the court to recognise him as acting national chairman and to stop the current leadership, under former Senate President David Mark, from operating.

Since then, the case has moved slowly but steadily; motions, objections, and jurisdictional arguments, until it reached the Court of Appeal.

On March 12, 2026, the court made a key decision. It did not decide who is right. Instead, it ordered all parties to maintain the ‘status quo ante bellum’ and warned against any action that could render the final judgment useless. In simple terms: pause everything. But politics rarely pauses just because the courts say so.

The Freeze: Why INEC Stepped Back

After that ruling, the Independent National Electoral Commission stepped back. It withdrew recognition from all sides. It stopped dealing with the party. It said it would not monitor any activities.

From a legal standpoint, the logic is straightforward: recognising one faction could amount to disobeying a court order. But on the ground, the effect is anything but simple.

For party members across the country, it means planning in the dark; organising meetings, printing materials, mobilising supporters, without knowing if any of it will count.

In Abuja, one ward organiser, Moses Shekwolo, puts it plainly: he has already postponed three meetings ahead of the upcoming congresses scheduled to commence on April 9.

“We don’t even know which list will eventually stand at the end of the day,” he says.

The Clock is Ticking

And time is not on anyone’s side. The ADC has fixed dates for its internal processes.

Congresses: April 9 to 12.

National convention: April 14.

Primaries: April 23 to May 30.

Submission of membership register: May 10.

Meanwhile, the court is expected to hear the case again on April 17. Miss these windows, and the race could be over before it even begins.

So the party faces a stark choice: Move ahead without INEC, and risk everything being voided later. Or wait for the courts, and risk missing the election entirely.

Who Really Controls the Party?

That question remains unanswered. On one side is the current leadership, backed by a coalition of opposition figures including David Mark.

On the other is the faction in court led by Nafiu Bala Gombe, insisting the current structure violates the party’s own constitution. For now, both claims exist at once; one in law, the other in practice.

The Legal Battle Behind the Scenes

Beyond the headline case, other legal battles are unfolding quietly. Applications to stop congresses. Counter-arguments challenging those requests. Disputes over whether even INEC has acted within its powers. None of them are resolved. Each one carries the potential to reshape what happens next.

Another Threat: Deregistration

Then there is a separate case, less visible, but potentially more final. It is not about leadership or control. It is about existence.

Before the Federal High Court in Abuja, a suit marked FHC/ABJ/CS/2637/25 is asking the court to compel the Independent National Electoral Commission to deregister the African Democratic Congress and several other parties entirely. 

The case was filed by the Incorporated Trustees of the National Forum of Former Legislators against INEC, the Attorney-General of the Federation, and the affected parties. At its core is a constitutional question: whether INEC is not just empowered, but obligated, to strike off parties that fail to meet minimum electoral performance thresholds set by law. 

Those thresholds are specific. A party is expected to show measurable electoral strength; winning at least a ward, securing a legislative seat, or achieving defined vote percentages in national or state elections. The plaintiffs argue that some parties, including the ADC, fell short 2023 and should no longer be legally recognised. 

In court, the matter has moved in fits and starts; adjournments, procedural arguments, and applications. Judges have fixed dates for hearings and rulings, including a key stage, where pending motions and questions about who can be joined in the suit are to be decided. 

On paper, it is one case among many. In reality, it hangs over everything. Because if it succeeds, the implications are immediate and absolute. The party ceases to exist, instantly. Its structures, its leadership disputes, its planned congresses and convention, even its role in the emerging opposition coalition, all of it collapses into irrelevance at once.

And that is what makes this moment different. The ADC is not just dealing with internal fractures or regulatory uncertainty. It is confronting a legal challenge that questions its very right to be on the ballot in 2027.

What Could Happen Next

Several outcomes are possible. A swift court ruling could restore clarity. A prolonged case could derail the timetable. Proceeding without INEC could trigger fresh litigation. A negotiated settlement could calm tensions. A deregistration ruling could end it all. Each path carries risk. None offers certainty.

We Have Seen this Before, and the Numbers Tell the Story

Nigeria’s political history offers warnings. The Peoples Democratic Party crisis of 2016 split the party between Ali Modu Sheriff and Ahmed Makarfi. The dispute lasted more than 14 months before the Supreme Court of Nigeria resolved it in July 2017. By then, the damage had been done.

Ahead of the 2019 elections, the All Progressives Congress faced a different crisis in Rivers State. Parallel primaries led to a court ruling, again by the Supreme Court of Nigeria, that the party had conducted no valid primaries. The result: total exclusion from the ballot in the state.

And in February 2020, the Independent National Electoral Commission deregistered 74 parties in one move, cutting the field from 91 to 18. In each case, the crisis did not just weaken a party, it reshaped the next general election itself.

Why this Moment Is Different

Those crises unfolded over time. This one is compressed. A live court case. A freezing order. A regulator stepping back. A deregistration threat. An election timetable measured in weeks. Time is not stretching this crisis. It is tightening it, and squeezing every decision into a risk.

PUBLIC REACTIONS

‘This attack on democracy will not stand’ — David Mark

David Mark, Interim National Chairman of the African Democratic Congress and former Senate President, demanded a change in the leadership of the Independent National Electoral Commission, accusing the government of plotting a one-party state.

“We demand the immediate resignation or sack of the INEC Chairman, Professor Amupitan, and all the National Commissioners… This attack on democracy will not stand,” he said.

‘INEC must be careful not to destroy opposition’ — Jega

Mahmud Jega, a public affairs analyst, warned of a deliberate weakening of the opposition and urged caution from INEC amid the freeze and earlier delays affecting other platforms like ADA.

“The impression INEC is giving is that it is part of the scheme to destroy all opposition parties. The opposition wanted the ADA; INEC sat on it for two years. Now they have moved to ADC, and they are coming up with something else. INEC has to be very careful,” he said.

‘A sinister conspiracy against democracy’ — Inibehe Effiong

Inibehe Effiong, a prominent constitutional and human rights lawyer, criticised INEC’s actions, describing them as a conspiracy that could eliminate meaningful electoral contestation in 2027.

“It seems that the ruling party… is so scared of a fair contestation. If it is the desire of INEC for Bola Tinubu to contest as a sole candidate; unopposed, in 2027, let the Commission say so publicly. This raises concerns about a well-orchestrated sinister conspiracy to truncate contested and credible elections for 2027,” he alleged.

‘We will continue, with or without INEC’ — Bolaji Abdullahi

Bolaji Abdullahi, National Publicity Secretary of the African Democratic Congress and former Minister of Youth and Sports Development, rejected INEC’s interpretation of the Court of Appeal order as pressure-driven, affirming the party’s resolve to proceed with its planned activities.

“We reject INEC’s interpretation of the Court of Appeal ruling. We knew that INEC was being pressured by a government that has become jittery from the ADC’s rising momentum… INEC has caved to pressure and has chosen to side with the government against the Nigerian people… We have given INEC 21 days’ notice. They have accepted the notice. So whether they come or not, we’ll continue with our congresses.”

‘We will not surrender’ — Dalung

Solomon Dalung, former Minister of Youth and Sports Development and an ADC chieftain, pushed back strongly against INEC’s warning and freeze, insisting the party would not be deterred.

“If INEC is confused, ADC cannot be confused. If INEC is a lawless organisation, ADC is not. We won’t surrender to Tinubu’s tyranny. INEC is on a hatchet mission,” he said.

The Human Side of It All

Back in the Yar’Adua Centre, the noise continues. People are still talking. Still arguing. Still calculating what comes next.

And at the centre of it, Aisha Yesufu remains steady. Not talking about court orders. Not talking about procedure. But about people, and what happens if all of this collapses. Because right now, nothing is settled. Not the leadership. Not the legal battles. Not even the future of the party itself.

And in a room full of voices, one question hangs, unanswered and unavoidable: What happens if time runs out?

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