2027: Opinion divided as Reps ‘cage politicians’ ahead of party primaries

Political defections intensified across Nigeria a few weeks back as the 2027 general elections draws near, with governors, lawmakers and party leaders switching allegiances in what analysts described as a strategic realignment reshaping the country’s political landscape.

On Wednesday, March 11, 2026, the House of Representatives amended provisions of the Electoral Act to criminalize dual political party membership, a move seen as an attempt to curb opportunistic political behaviour ahead of the polls.

Under the amendment, violators face a fine of N10 million, imprisonment of up to two years, or both, while any form of dual membership is rendered void and unenforceable.

Legal experts say the move signals lawmakers’ intention to strengthen party discipline and protect voter mandates.

Legal Framework and Limits of the Law

Nigeria’s constitutional framework already addresses defections.

Section 68(1)(g) of the Constitution provides that a lawmaker who defects from the party that sponsored their election may lose the seat, except in cases of internal party division.

The Electoral Act reinforces this provision, though enforcement has historically remained inconsistent.

Barr. Abdulrazak Boye Folorunsho, a Minna-based legal practitioner, told DAILY POST that frequent defections weaken democratic institutions.

“Running from one party to another weakens opposition parties and erodes democratic settings. If laws are not enforced, the will of the people can easily be submerged,” he said.

Folorunsho noted that while lawmakers sometimes face consequences, governors often do not, creating an imbalance in accountability.

Rising Wave of Defections Across States

Defections tend to spike 12–18 months before general elections as politicians reposition for advantage.

Niger State:

In Niger State, Adamu Tanko, representing Suleja/Gurara/Tafa Federal Constituency, defected from the PDP to APC in March 2025, alongside former lawmaker Abdullahi Ricco, who switched parties around the same period.

There were also other defections across the state involving party members and political stakeholders at various times, reflecting a broader pattern of realignment ahead of the 2027 elections.

Residents expressed frustration over the developments.

“I voted for my representative because of the party and promises. Now he has joined another party without consulting us,” said Aisha Musa, a resident of Suleja.

Analysts noted that these moves were strategically timed to align with federal power and secure political survival, rather than reflecting ideological commitments or grassroots support.

Adamawa State:

The state witnessed one of the largest political shifts. In February 2026, Speaker Wesley Bathiya and about 15 lawmakers resigned from the PDP to the APC, citing internal party crises.

Shortly after, Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri defected to the APC, bringing along key political allies, including the state executive council and local government chairmen.

The coordinated move reshaped Adamawa’s political landscape ahead of 2027.

Opposition figures criticized the defection as politically motivated and strategically calculated rather than people-driven, arguing it weakened PDP influence in the state.

FCT:

Senator Ireti Kingibe moved from the Labour Party to the ADC in late 2025. Analysts said the move was strategic, reflecting alignment with parties offering greater federal influence.

Plateau, Rivers, Enugu, Delta, and Akwa Ibom States:

Governors Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), and Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom) all switched to APC between April and December 2025, consolidating the ruling party’s influence regionally.

The moves drew criticism from opposition figures, who described the defections as politically motivated and not reflective of the people’s will.

Analysts noted that these governors were aligning with the federal government ahead of 2027 to secure resources and political advantage, rather than responding to grassroots support.

Civil society leaders also raised concerns that such defections undermine democratic accountability and weaken opposition parties at the state level.

Kano State:

Governor Abba Yusuf left the NNPP for APC in January 2026, bringing along lawmakers and local government chairmen. Analysts said this reflected strategic alignment ahead of elections.

Defections Extend to National Assembly

The National Assembly has also experienced defections. In March 2026, Senators Amos Yohanna (Adamawa North), Aminu Iya Abbas (Adamawa Central), and Ikra Aliyu Bilbis (Zamfara Central) moved from PDP to APC, with their letters read on the floor by Senate President Godswill Akpabio.

Earlier, Senators Shuaibu Lau and Haruna Manu of Taraba left PDP for APC, increasing APC’s numerical dominance. Analysts said these moves were timed to influence legislative control ahead of 2027 elections.

Inside the Politics of Realignment

Behind many defections are negotiations rarely visible to the public.

Political sources in Niger, Adamawa, and other states told DAILY POST that lawmakers and governors often assess which party offers better access to federal resources, protection from intra-party conflicts, and stronger re-election prospects.

Some defections are timed to influence primaries or local government elections, showing that these moves are calculated survival strategies rather than ideological choices.

Political insiders noted that consultations often involved federal officials and party leadership, highlighting the coordinated nature of defections.

Experts Weigh in on Survival Politics

Dr Dominic Alancha, a political analyst and Convener Concerned APC Stakeholders, North Central, based in Benue state, said, “Progress under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, including economic reforms and increased allocations to states, encouraged some governors to align with APC. Honestly, it is also about survival.”

Dr Abdullah Mohammed Jabi, Chairman of the Campaign for Democracy, North Central zone, and chairman Coalition of Civil Society, Niger State chapter added, “Ideology is not the main driver. Opposition parties that cannot organize themselves leave members with no choice but to jump ship. From a voter’s perspective, it’s a breach of trust.”

Barr. Folorunsho warned that repeated defections weaken opposition parties and erode public trust in democracy, raising the risk of a dominant-party system.

Citizens Question Mandate and Trust

Chinedu Okeke, Enugu resident, stated, “Party switching makes politicians look opportunistic; it feels like we voted for a person, not policies.”

Teni Moses, a Minna student, noted: “Projects we were promised can stall, and we never know if policies will continue. It makes governance unpredictable.”

Civil society groups criticised frequent defections for undermining representative democracy and weakening electoral accountability.

Political Stakeholders React

Hon. Yahaya Ability, PDP BoT member from Niger State, speaking in a telephone interview with DAILY POST, fully supported the House of Representatives’ move to curb defections.

“How can people vote for a candidate under a particular political party and after working hard to ensure victory, the person switches for personal interest? This amounts to a betrayal of the people’s mandate,” he said.

Ability added that most defections are survival-driven rather than ideology-driven and cited court cases such as Zamfara, where mandates were challenged successfully when politicians defected.

He also confirmed that the PDP BoT is ready to formally support lawmakers in enforcing the law saying, “If the lawmakers give us room to show our support in the National Assembly, we are ready”.

National Treasurer of the ADC, Dr Mani Ibrahim Ahmed, speaking to journalists in an interview after the inauguration of the Niger State leadership coordinating team, in Minna argued that defections by governors do not necessarily reflect public support.

“Governors may move, but that does not mean the people are with them. Many are moving because they are being intimidated or induced,” he said.

Dr Ahmed added that similar patterns observed in states like Kano could be replicated nationwide but emphasized that electoral success depends on popular backing, not just party realignment.

Defections are not new in the country. Similar waves were observed ahead of the 2015 and 2019 elections.

Analysts say weak party ideology and legal loopholes have allowed the trend to persist, often driven by alignment with federal power.

How Other Democracies Handle Defections

In India, anti-defection laws can lead to automatic disqualification of lawmakers. In the UK, MPs leaving parties face pressure to seek re-election.

South Africa abolished floor-crossing after it weakened accountability.

Compared to these systems, Nigeria’s framework remains flexible, allowing political survival to sometimes override party loyalty.

Impact on Governance and Opposition Strength

Unchecked defections weaken opposition parties, disrupt policy continuity, and lower citizen confidence in governance.

Analysts warn that repeated party switching can stall development projects, disrupt local administration, and consolidate ruling-party power.

2027 Calculations Already Underway

As 2027 approaches, political repositioning is expected to accelerate. Governors seeking second terms, lawmakers aiming for higher office, and party leaders calculating influence are already making strategic moves.

Weak party ideology, constitutional loopholes, and electoral calculation continue to shape political behaviour.

Analysts predict more defections in states where opposition parties are weak or disorganized.

A Defining Test for Nigeria’s Democracy

With defections spreading across state governments, legislatures, and the National Assembly, Nigeria is witnessing another period of rapid political realignment.

The Electoral Act amendment represents a critical test of whether legal frameworks can influence political behaviour or if opportunistic switching will continue to dominate Nigeria’s political scene.

2027: Opinion divided as Reps ‘cage politicians’ ahead of party primaries