2026 Macroeconomic Outlook: EnterpriseNGR report presentation sees further stability

By Emeka Anaeto, Business Editor

As Nigeria’s economic reforms enters its third year analysts have remained largely optimistic that a sustained policy measures would result in stability across key macroeconomic indicators.

This was the major content in the 2026 EnterpriseNGR macroeconomic outlook launched yesterday in Lagos.

Speaking on the outlook, Omotayo Muritala, Head of Research at EnterpriseNGR, said ”Economic growth is expected to strengthen in 2026 as reform momentum, infrastructure spending, and services-sector expansion support broader economic activities.”

According to him, based on the various calculations, EnterpriseNGR expects that real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth would be around 4.49% in 2026, reflecting a broad-based expansion across services, agriculture, trade, and telecommunications.

He added, ”The oil sector is also anticipated to make modest gains with improved security and operational stability.

”This assumes continuity of recent reforms in fiscal management, foreign exchange liberalization, and infrastructure investment”.

Giving details of this expectation, he said the rationale for base case includes, ”Improved foreign exchange market efficiency that supports exchange rate stability; Fiscal expansion under the 2025-2027 MTEF will boost aggregate demand; Crude oil production is expected to remain stable around 1.50 mbpd; Private sector investments, especially in refining, expected to strengthen output; and Services sector growth (ICT, trade, transport) is expected to remain resilient.”

On the rationale for best case, he stated: ”Crude oil production stabilizes above 1.7 to 1.8 mbpd with reduced theft and downtime; Stronger foreign exchange inflows from oil, remittances, and portfolio capital to ease liquidity constraints; Services led growth accelerates, particularly in finance, ICT, trade, and logistics; Manufacturing benefits from improved energy availability and import input access; and Fiscal reforms deepen, with better revenue mobilization and capital expenditure execution.”

However, the EnterpriseNGR also envisions possible downsides which, according to Muritala is a worst case scenario on the rationale including, ”Oil production underperforms due to security issues or operational disruptions; Global growth slows, dampening commodity demand and capital flows; Tight global policy rates persist, constraining investment and foreign exchange inflows; Inflation remains elevated, suppressing household consumption;  and Reform fatigue or policy reversals weaken private sector confidence.”

He highlighted easing inflation, improved foreign exchange liquidity, and strengthening external buffers as indicators of stabilisation.

Speaking at the launch, Obi Ibekwe, Chief Executive Officer of EnterpriseNGR, noted that Nigeria is transitioning from a period of adjustment to one of stabilisation and renewed confidence.

“The foundations for macroeconomic stability have been laid. The priority now is to convert reform gains into sustainable growth, investment, and improved welfare,” she said.

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