2025 Budget: FG records 18.9% shortfall in crude oil output
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By Obas Esiedesa
Seven months into the implementation of the 2025 budget, Nigeria’s oil production has fallen short by 82.46 million barrels, representing an 18.88 percent deficit against the Federal Government’s target of 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd).
Latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that between January and July 2025, the country produced 354.26 million barrels of oil compared to the budget benchmark of 436.72 million barrels for the same period.
The 2025 Appropriation Act had pegged daily oil production at 2.06 million bpd with a price benchmark of $75 per barrel to finance government expenditure.
A month-by-month analysis of NUPRC data revealed consistent underperformance. In January, actual output stood at 53.86 million barrels against the target of 63.86 million barrels. February recorded 44.81 million barrels, well below the 57.68 million barrels budgeted.
Shortfalls persisted in March and April, with production at 49.72 million and 50.50 million barrels, respectively, compared to targets of 61.80 million and 63.86 million barrels.
Although output improved in June and July, it still lagged behind budgetary expectations. June production was 50.91 million barrels against a target of 61.80 million, while July recorded 53.08 million barrels compared to the expected 63.86 million.
July’s data showed daily average production rose by 0.88 percent to 1.712 million bpd, up from 1.697 million bpd in June. However, this remained below the 2.06 million bpd target. NUPRC further reported that July’s peak daily production was 1.84 million barrels, while the lowest was 1.66 million barrels.
Significantly, average daily crude oil output (excluding condensates) stood at 1.507 million bpd, slightly above Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd at 100.5 percent.
The World Bank, in its recent Nigeria Development Update, had cautioned that the budget assumptions of 2.1 million bpd and $75 per barrel were “ambitious.”
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