2027 PRESIDENCY: How far can PDP-APM alliance take Makinde?

By Dapo Akinrefon

ON Thursday, May 14, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State declared his presidential intention and said he would run on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in alliance with the Allied Peoples’ Movement, APC, in the 2027 election.

The declaration, however, seemed to have transformed the politics of Oyo State.

The declaration was not merely the launch of another presidential ambition; it was the unveiling of a broader political experiment rooted in coalition-building, the same strategy that propelled Makinde to power in 2019.

This time, however, the stakes are significantly higher.

Standing before thousands of supporters gathered for a mega rally organised by the PDP and APM, the governor announced a new opposition alliance which he hoped could become the foundation of a national political movement ahead of the 2027 polls.

MoU between PDP, APM

The event followed the formal signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between both parties at the PDP South-West Secretariat in Ibadan, supervised by the governor and the National Chairman of the APM, Yusuf Mamman Dantalle.

But beyond the symbolism of party agreements and campaign rhetoric lay a deeper political question: can the alliance model that worked effectively in Oyo State be successfully replicated at the national level against the formidable machinery of the All Progressives Congress, APC?

Ghost of 2019

Makinde’s emergence as governor in 2019 remained one of the clearest examples of successful opposition coalition politics in recent Nigerian history.

At the time, Oyo politics was deeply fragmented. Yet several opposition parties and influential political figures decided to close ranks in a determined effort to remove the APC from power in the state.

Former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, now the Olubadan of Ibadanland, and leaders from parties such as the African Democratic Congress, ADC; Social Democratic Party, SDP; and Zenith Labour Party, ZLP merged their political structures into the PDP in support of Makinde’s candidacy.

How the alliance proved decisive

Makinde defeated APC candidate, Mr Adebayo Adelabu, by polling 515,621 votes against Adelabu’s 357,982.

Observers at the time credited the coalition with neutralising the APC’s dominance by pooling grassroots structures, regional influence and anti-incumbency sentiments into a single electoral force.

Six years later, Makinde appeared convinced that the same formula could become the basis for a national opposition resurgence.

The difference, however, is that coalition politics at the federal level is infinitely more complicated than state-level alliances.

Time to reset Nigeria

At the Ibadan rally, Makinde framed the emerging alliance as a democratic necessity rather than a narrow partisan arrangement.

The governor argued that Nigeria’s democratic foundations were under pressure due to what he described as increasing interference in opposition politics nationwide.

He said the gathering represented more than a political rally, explaining that it was an attempt to retrace the country’s democratic journey and understand how Nigeria arrived at its current political situation.

“We are all here at this mega rally to announce the grand alliance between the People’s Democratic Party and the Allied Peoples’ Movement. We must retrace our steps to understand how we arrived at this point in our political history,” he said.

He further warned that the country was approaching a dangerous political crossroads where democratic competition itself appeared threatened.

“We have found ourselves at a point in our nation’s political history where the very foundations of democracy are being shaken,” he lamented.

The governor accused unnamed political actors of deliberately weakening opposition parties in pursuit of a one-party state.

Makinde said: “We have continued to witness interference in the affairs of opposition parties across our beloved country, with the clear intention of steering Nigeria towards a one-party state.”

His comments reflected a growing sentiment among opposition figures who believed Nigeria’s democratic space is shrinking amid defections, internal crises and the expanding influence of the APC across key political institutions.

While he insisted that genuine democracy could not survive without vibrant political competition, he warned: “Without a multi-party system, there can be no true democracy. So, where is our democracy today?”

Economic hardship as political fuel

While the alliance is fundamentally political, its organisers clearly understood that public frustration over economic conditions may become the opposition’s strongest weapon heading into 2027.

Nigeria is currently grappling with severe inflation, rising food prices, energy costs and worsening living conditions for many households. Security challenges also remain persistent across several parts of the country.

Makinde, who tapped directly into those frustrations during his address, lamented that worsening economic and security realities had forced many Nigerians into daily survival struggles.

“The economic and security situations continue to worsen, forcing the majority of Nigerians into survival mode on a daily basis,” he said.

He lampooned those in authority for treating public office as private property rather than a responsibility entrusted to them by citizens.

Beyond party politics

One of the most striking aspects of Makinde’s speech was his effort to redefine opposition politics beyond traditional party structures.

The governor was of the view that the opposition was no longer limited to politicians or political parties but included ordinary Nigerians dissatisfied with the direction of the country.

He said millions of citizens who felt excluded by the current economic and governance realities were already part of the broader opposition movement.

“The opposition in Nigeria is not limited to political parties alone. The opposition is every ordinary Nigerian for whom this country is no longer working,” he declared.

Makinde added that opposition parties remained committed to working together to provide Nigerians with what he described as a credible alternative.

“And the opposition political parties in Nigeria remain committed to working together to present a credible alternative for our people,” he said.

The language was carefully crafted to position the alliance as a populist movement rather than merely an electoral arrangement among elite politicians.

Politics of resistance

The presidential hopeful also sought to present the emerging coalition as an act of resistance against political intimidation and public despair.

The governor argued that Nigerians had been pushed to the brink by worsening conditions and political manipulation, noting that many citizens were being driven towards hopelessness and division.

“For several months now, one question has remained at the forefront of my mind: where do we go from here? Is this truly the path we intend to continue on as a nation?” he asked.

Makinde maintained that there was an expectation in some quarters that Nigerians would become too exhausted by hardship to demand accountability.

“We have been pushed to the brink, with the expectation that we will turn against one another in confusion and desperation,” he stated.

According to him, the ruling establishment assumed that the daily struggle for survival would weaken citizens’ capacity to resist poor governance.

“Their greatest assumption is that we will become too exhausted from the daily struggle to survive to resist or demand better,” he said.

While he argued that the emerging alliance had already disproved assumptions that opposition parties could never unite, he said: “They concluded that the opposition could never unite. I stand before you to say clearly: that was a grave miscalculation.”

Perhaps the most politically symbolic moment of the rally came when Makinde announced what he called the ‘Reset Nigeria Movement’.

Calling on opposition parties to close ranks, Makinde described the alliance between the PDP and APM as the beginning of a larger political coalition.

Long road to 2027
For now, Makinde’s declaration has undoubtedly altered the early political conversation surrounding 2027.

By launching both a presidential bid and an opposition alliance simultaneously, he has positioned himself not merely as another aspirant but as a possible architect of opposition consolidation.

The real test lied ahead: whether opposition parties can sustain unity beyond public declarations; whether Nigerians can be persuaded that the alliance offered a credible governing alternative; and whether Makinde himself can successfully transition from influential governor to national political force.

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